Orchid Island Capital Announces Estimated Fourth Quarter 2025 Results and December 31, 2025 RMBS Portfolio Characteristics
Rhea-AI Summary
Orchid Island Capital (NYSE: ORC) provided estimated fourth quarter 2025 results and RMBS portfolio characteristics as of December 31, 2025. Key preliminary figures: book value per share $7.54, preliminary total stockholders' equity ≈ $1.4 billion with 181,985,900 shares outstanding at year end. The company estimates GAAP net income $0.62 per share for Q4 2025, which includes $0.43 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivatives. Dividends declared in the quarter were $0.36 per share, and estimated total return on equity was 7.8%. All figures are preliminary and subject to independent review.
Positive
- Book value per share of $7.54
- Preliminary stockholders' equity ≈ $1.4 billion
- Estimated GAAP net income $0.62 per share for Q4 2025
- Total return on equity 7.8% for the quarter
Negative
- Shares outstanding rose ≈22.8% from 148,239,401 on Sept 30 to 181,985,900 on Dec 31 (dilution risk)
- $0.43 per share of the $0.62 net income is from realized/unrealized gains (earnings volatility)
- All figures are preliminary and subject to independent review (audit risk/possible revision)
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, ORC gained 2.78%, reflecting a moderate positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
ORC gained 0.77% with modestly elevated volume, while several mortgage REIT peers like MFA (+1.34%), PMT (+0.61%), TWO (+2.10%), and FBRT (+1.62%) also traded higher and CIM slipped (-0.15%). Scanner data still flagged this as stock-specific rather than a broad sector momentum move.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | Dividend & guidance | Neutral | -0.4% | Set January dividend and flagged timing of Q4 estimates and earnings. |
| Dec 09 | Monthly dividend | Neutral | +0.0% | Declared December dividend and gave November 2025 RMBS snapshot. |
| Nov 12 | Monthly dividend | Neutral | -0.3% | Announced November dividend and preliminary October RMBS data. |
| Oct 23 | Q3 2025 earnings | Positive | +2.7% | Reported Q3 net income, gains on RMBS, higher book value and liquidity. |
| Oct 15 | Est. Q3 results | Positive | +0.6% | Provided estimated Q3 book value, net income, ROE and October dividend. |
Earnings and estimate-related updates have generally seen modest positive or flat reactions, while routine dividend/portfolio updates have produced muted or slightly negative moves.
Over the last few months, Orchid Island Capital has regularly combined dividend declarations with RMBS portfolio updates and quarterly earnings. In October 2025, it reported strong Q3 2025 results with higher book value and a $0.36 dividend, which coincided with a 2.69% gain. Earlier estimated Q3 figures on Oct 15, 2025 also saw a small positive move. In contrast, several monthly dividend announcements in Nov–Dec 2025 produced flat to slightly negative reactions. Today’s preliminary Q4 metrics extend this pattern of earnings-related strength tied to book value growth and portfolio gains.
Regulatory & Risk Context
An effective S-3ASR shelf filed on 2025-10-27 allows Orchid Island Capital to offer various securities, including common and preferred stock, debt, warrants, and units, and also registers the resale of up to 569,071 existing shares by selling stockholders. The company has used this shelf at least once, as indicated by a 424B5 filing on the same date.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement highlights preliminary Q4 2025 results, including an estimated book value of $7.54, GAAP net income of $0.62 per share, and a 7.8% total return on equity, all subject to audit review. Compared with earlier 2025 quarters, it extends a recovery from prior volatility in RMBS markets. Investors may watch the upcoming audited release, dividend policy, and any use of the active mixed shelf registration, along with changes in book value and portfolio risk metrics.
Key Terms
rmbs financial
derivative instruments financial
real estate investment trust ("reit") financial
investment company act of 1940 regulatory
repurchase agreement financial
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
- Estimated Book Value Per Share as of December 31, 2025 of
$7.54 - Estimated GAAP net income of
$0.62 per share for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, including an estimated$0.43 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments - Estimated
7.8% total return on equity for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 - Estimated book value, net income and total return on equity amounts are preliminary, subject to change, and subject to review by the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm
- RMBS Portfolio Characteristics as of December 31, 2025
VERO BEACH, Fla., Jan. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: ORC) announced today its estimated fourth quarter 2025 results and portfolio characteristics as of December 31, 2025.
Shares Outstanding
As of January 14, 2026, the Company had 183,345,932 shares of common stock outstanding. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had 181,985,900 shares of common stock outstanding. As of September 30, 2025, the Company had 148,239,401 shares of common stock outstanding.
Estimated December 31, 2025 Book Value Per Share
The Company’s estimated book value per share as of December 31, 2025 was
Estimated Net Income Per Share and Realized and Unrealized Gains on RMBS and Derivative Instruments
The Company estimates it generated net income per share of
Estimated Total Return on Equity
The Company’s estimated total return on equity for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 was
RMBS Portfolio Characteristics
Details of the RMBS portfolio as of December 31, 2025 are presented below. These figures are preliminary and subject to change and, with respect to figures that will appear in the Company’s financial statements and associated footnotes as of and for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, are subject to review by the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm:
- RMBS Valuation Characteristics
- RMBS Assets by Agency
- Investment Company Act of 1940 (Whole Pool) Test Results
- Repurchase Agreement Exposure by Counterparty
- RMBS Risk Measures
About Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. is a specialty finance company that invests on a leveraged basis in Agency RMBS. Our investment strategy focuses on, and our portfolio consists of, two categories of Agency RMBS: (i) traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass-through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae, and (ii) structured Agency RMBS. The Company is managed by Bimini Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are based upon Orchid Island Capital, Inc.’s present expectations, but these statements are not guaranteed to occur. Investors should not place undue reliance upon forward-looking statements. For further discussion of the factors that could affect outcomes, please refer to the “Risk Factors” section of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024.
| RMBS Valuation Characteristics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Realized | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Realized | Oct-25 - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net | Weighted | CPR | CPR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Weighted | Average | (1-Month) | (3-Month) | Modeled Interest | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current | Fair | % of | Current | Average | Maturity | (Reported | (Reported | Rate Sensitivity (1) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Type | Face | Value | Portfolio | Price | Coupon | GWAC | Age | (Months) | in Jan) | in Jan) | (-50 BPS) | (+50 BPS) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed Rate RMBS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15yr 4.5 TBA | $ | 250,000 | $ | 250,239 | 2.30 | % | 100.10 | 4.50 | % | 5.41 | % | 6 | 174 | n/a | n/a | $ | 3,166 | $ | (3,884 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15yr Total | 250,000 | 250,239 | 2.30 | % | 100.10 | 4.50 | % | 5.41 | % | 6 | 174 | n/a | n/a | 3,166 | (3,884 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 3.0 | $ | 331,323 | $ | 298,535 | 2.74 | % | 90.10 | 3.00 | % | 3.52 | % | 56 | 297 | 8.4 | % | 7.2 | % | $ | 8,908 | $ | (8,971 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 3.5 | 38,078 | 35,320 | 0.32 | % | 92.76 | 3.50 | % | 4.30 | % | 75 | 266 | 1.0 | % | 3.6 | % | 1,047 | (1,063 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 4.0 | 50,951 | 49,040 | 0.45 | % | 96.25 | 4.00 | % | 4.77 | % | 79 | 277 | 9.2 | % | 13.1 | % | 1,213 | (1,256 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 4.5 | 269,222 | 264,933 | 2.44 | % | 98.41 | 4.50 | % | 5.44 | % | 42 | 313 | 8.4 | % | 11.2 | % | 5,249 | (5,932 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 5.0 | 1,307,603 | 1,314,406 | 12.08 | % | 100.52 | 5.00 | % | 5.99 | % | 13 | 345 | 6.0 | % | 8.1 | % | 23,000 | (28,319 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 5.5 | 3,210,601 | 3,293,958 | 30.28 | % | 102.60 | 5.50 | % | 6.46 | % | 10 | 347 | 7.7 | % | 9.7 | % | 40,662 | (57,200 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 6.0 | 3,253,257 | 3,377,940 | 31.05 | % | 103.83 | 6.00 | % | 6.93 | % | 13 | 343 | 15.1 | % | 17.0 | % | 23,948 | (39,091 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 6.5 | 1,663,678 | 1,748,401 | 16.07 | % | 105.09 | 6.50 | % | 7.39 | % | 16 | 340 | 20.6 | % | 23.8 | % | 7,396 | (12,727 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr 7.0 | 220,316 | 233,037 | 2.14 | % | 105.77 | 7.00 | % | 7.95 | % | 26 | 325 | 46.1 | % | 40.5 | % | 1,439 | (1,713 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30yr Total | 10,345,029 | 10,615,570 | 97.58 | % | 102.62 | 5.67 | % | 6.59 | % | 16 | 341 | 12.7 | % | 15.8 | % | 112,862 | (156,272 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total Pass-Through RMBS | 10,595,029 | 10,865,809 | 99.88 | % | 102.56 | 5.64 | % | 6.57 | % | 15 | 337 | 12.7 | % | 15.8 | % | 116,028 | (160,156 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Structured RMBS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IO 20yr 4.0 | 5,363 | 428 | 0.00 | % | 7.98 | 4.00 | % | 4.56 | % | 167 | 67 | 10.9 | % | 10.9 | % | 2 | (2 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IO 30yr 4.0 | 63,370 | 11,682 | 0.11 | % | 18.44 | 4.00 | % | 4.60 | % | 135 | 215 | 6.0 | % | 8.1 | % | (249 | ) | 141 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IO 30yr 4.5 | 2,776 | 501 | 0.00 | % | 18.04 | 4.50 | % | 4.99 | % | 186 | 161 | 7.7 | % | 7.4 | % | (4 | ) | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IO 30yr 5.0 | 1,440 | 291 | 0.00 | % | 20.18 | 5.00 | % | 5.37 | % | 186 | 161 | 2.3 | % | 5.7 | % | (5 | ) | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IO Total | 72,949 | 12,902 | 0.12 | % | 17.69 | 4.04 | % | 4.62 | % | 141 | 201 | 6.3 | % | 8.3 | % | (256 | ) | 142 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IIO 30yr 4.0 | 17,704 | 186 | 0.00 | % | 1.05 | 0.00 | % | 4.40 | % | 99 | 249 | 25.8 | % | 10.1 | % | 117 | (83 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total Structured RMBS | 90,653 | 13,088 | 0.12 | % | 14.44 | 3.25 | % | 4.58 | % | 133 | 210 | 10.1 | % | 8.6 | % | (139 | ) | 59 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total Mortgage Assets | $ | 10,685,682 | $ | 10,878,897 | 100.00 | % | 5.62 | % | 6.55 | % | 16 | 336 | 12.7 | % | 15.7 | % | $ | 115,889 | $ | (160,097 | ) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hedge | Modeled Interest | ||||||||||||
| Notional | Period | Rate Sensitivity (1) | |||||||||||
| Hedge | Balance | End | (-50 BPS) | (+50 BPS) | |||||||||
| 3-Month SOFR Futures | $ | (390,000 | ) | Sep-26 | $ | (2,925 | ) | $ | 2,925 | ||||
| 5-Year Treasury Future(2) | (122,500 | ) | May-30 | (2,586 | ) | 2,509 | |||||||
| 10-Year Treasury Future(3) | (90,000 | ) | Nov-32 | (2,967 | ) | 2,883 | |||||||
| 10-Year Ultra Treasury Future(4) | (60,000 | ) | Aug-35 | (2,711 | ) | 2,589 | |||||||
| ERIS SOFR Swap Futures | (10,000 | ) | Mar-31 | (231 | ) | 224 | |||||||
| Swaps | (5,858,300 | ) | Apr-30 | (117,421 | ) | 113,973 | |||||||
| TBA Short | (430,000 | ) | Jan-26 | (2,945 | ) | 4,907 | |||||||
| Hedge Total | $ | (6,960,800 | ) | $ | (131,786 | ) | $ | 130,010 | |||||
| Rate Shock Grand Total | $ | (15,897 | ) | $ | (30,087 | ) | |||||||
| (1 | ) | Modeled results from Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Yield Book. Interest rate shocks assume instantaneous parallel shifts and horizon prices are calculated assuming constant SOFR option-adjusted spreads. These results are for illustrative purposes only and actual results may differ materially. |
| (2 | ) | Five-year Treasury futures contracts were valued at prices of |
| (3 | ) | Ten-year Treasury futures contracts were valued at prices of |
| (4 | ) | Ten-year Ultra futures contracts were valued at prices of |
| RMBS Assets by Agency | ||||||||
| ($ in thousands) | ||||||||
| Percentage | ||||||||
| Fair | of | |||||||
| Asset Category | Value | Portfolio | ||||||
| As of December 31, 2025 | ||||||||
| Fannie Mae | $ | 5,690,965 | 53.5 | % | ||||
| Freddie Mac | 4,937,693 | 46.5 | % | |||||
| Total Mortgage Assets | $ | 10,628,658 | 100.0 | % | ||||
| Investment Company Act of 1940 Whole Pool Test | ||||||||
| ($ in thousands) | ||||||||
| Percentage | ||||||||
| Fair | of | |||||||
| Asset Category | Value | Portfolio | ||||||
| As of December 31, 2025 | ||||||||
| Non-Whole Pool Assets | $ | 634,687 | 6.0 | % | ||||
| Whole Pool Assets | 9,993,971 | 94.0 | % | |||||
| Total Mortgage Assets | $ | 10,628,658 | 100.0 | % | ||||
| Borrowings By Counterparty | |||||||||||||||||
| ($ in thousands) | |||||||||||||||||
| Weighted | Weighted | ||||||||||||||||
| % of | Average | Average | |||||||||||||||
| Total | Total | Repo | Maturity | Longest | |||||||||||||
| As of December 31, 2025 | Borrowings | Debt | Rate | in Days | Maturity | ||||||||||||
| Citigroup Global Markets Inc | $ | 527,566 | 5.2 | % | 4.03 | % | 27 | 2/25/2026 | |||||||||
| ABN AMRO Bank N.V. | 507,961 | 5.0 | % | 4.01 | % | 33 | 3/2/2026 | ||||||||||
| South Street Securities, LLC | 501,372 | 5.0 | % | 4.02 | % | 102 | 11/13/2026 | ||||||||||
| J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | 495,300 | 4.9 | % | 3.94 | % | 26 | 1/26/2026 | ||||||||||
| Marex Capital Markets Inc. | 494,150 | 4.9 | % | 4.03 | % | 21 | 1/23/2026 | ||||||||||
| Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | 489,749 | 4.8 | % | 3.99 | % | 9 | 1/29/2026 | ||||||||||
| Hidden Road Partners Civ US LLC | 469,978 | 4.6 | % | 4.02 | % | 22 | 2/27/2026 | ||||||||||
| Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith | 466,235 | 4.6 | % | 4.09 | % | 43 | 2/23/2026 | ||||||||||
| RBC Capital Markets, LLC | 464,617 | 4.6 | % | 4.04 | % | 53 | 6/26/2026 | ||||||||||
| Daiwa Securities America Inc. | 455,124 | 4.5 | % | 4.05 | % | 54 | 3/23/2026 | ||||||||||
| StoneX Financial Inc. | 438,478 | 4.3 | % | 3.92 | % | 54 | 2/23/2026 | ||||||||||
| ASL Capital Markets Inc. | 413,468 | 4.1 | % | 3.80 | % | 93 | 9/21/2026 | ||||||||||
| Clear Street LLC | 405,479 | 4.0 | % | 3.97 | % | 21 | 2/2/2026 | ||||||||||
| Goldman, Sachs & Co | 394,876 | 3.9 | % | 3.94 | % | 25 | 1/29/2026 | ||||||||||
| DV Securities, LLC Repo | 391,259 | 3.9 | % | 3.93 | % | 55 | 2/27/2026 | ||||||||||
| The Bank of Nova Scotia | 372,871 | 3.7 | % | 3.90 | % | 53 | 2/23/2026 | ||||||||||
| Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc. | 333,950 | 3.3 | % | 3.96 | % | 21 | 1/22/2026 | ||||||||||
| Cantor Fitzgerald & Co | 321,162 | 3.2 | % | 4.06 | % | 26 | 1/26/2026 | ||||||||||
| Banco Santander SA | 309,950 | 3.1 | % | 3.97 | % | 21 | 2/13/2026 | ||||||||||
| Bank of Montreal | 292,462 | 2.9 | % | 4.02 | % | 14 | 1/14/2026 | ||||||||||
| ING Financial Markets LLC | 284,938 | 2.8 | % | 4.07 | % | 48 | 2/17/2026 | ||||||||||
| Mitsubishi UFJ Securities (USA), Inc. | 258,582 | 2.6 | % | 3.95 | % | 21 | 1/21/2026 | ||||||||||
| MUFG Securities Canada, Ltd. | 243,227 | 2.4 | % | 3.88 | % | 30 | 1/30/2026 | ||||||||||
| Brean Capital, LLC | 238,050 | 2.4 | % | 3.96 | % | 40 | 2/12/2026 | ||||||||||
| Mizuho Securities USA LLC | 205,269 | 2.0 | % | 4.03 | % | 33 | 2/17/2026 | ||||||||||
| Nomura Securities International, Inc. | 202,259 | 2.0 | % | 3.92 | % | 75 | 3/16/2026 | ||||||||||
| Natixis, New York Branch | 103,725 | 1.0 | % | 3.90 | % | 29 | 1/29/2026 | ||||||||||
| Lucid Prime Fund, LLC | 33,409 | 0.3 | % | 4.00 | % | 15 | 1/15/2026 | ||||||||||
| Total Borrowings | $ | 10,115,466 | 100.0 | % | 3.98 | % | 39 | 11/13/2026 | |||||||||
Contact:
Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
Robert E. Cauley
3305 Flamingo Drive, Vero Beach, Florida 32963
Telephone: (772) 231-1400
FAQ
What was Orchid Island Capital's estimated book value per share as of December 31, 2025 (ORC)?
How much net income per share did ORC estimate for Q4 2025 and what portion was gains?
What was Orchid Island Capital's estimated total return on equity for Q4 2025 (ORC)?
How many shares of common stock did ORC have outstanding at year end 2025?
How do ORC's declared dividends in Q4 2025 compare to estimated net income per share?
Are Orchid Island Capital's December 31, 2025 figures final (ORC)?
