Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Post First Decline in 3 Months, Even As Mortgage Rates Drop

The weekly average mortgage rate dropped for the ninth straight week, dipping to an 11-month low. But would-be buyers are hesitant because prices are high, the economy is uncertain and new listings are dwindling.

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Pending U.S. home sales dipped roughly 1% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending September 21, the first decline in nearly three months, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.

The weekly average mortgage rate has fallen to 6.26%, the lowest level in nearly a year and down from roughly 6.9% at the start of summer. The dip was in anticipation of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut of the year.

But steadily falling mortgage rates—this marks the ninth straight week of declines—haven’t brought many homebuyers to the market. And while mortgage applications to refinance homes jumped 58% week over week during the second week of September, mortgage-purchase applications rose just 3%.

There are several reasons homebuying demand isn’t yet improving:

• Stubbornly high home prices. The median U.S. home-sale price is up 2.2% year over year, the biggest increase in nearly six months. That’s keeping monthly housing payments elevated despite falling mortgage rates.
• Mortgage rates haven’t fallen enough. Redfin agents report that many would-be buyers are waiting for rates to fall below 6% before making a move—something that may or may not happen.
• Lack of fresh homes to choose from. New listings of homes for sale are essentially flat year over year, as they have been for two months. The total number of homes for sale is up 8.6%, the smallest increase since the start of 2024. With new listings dwindling as home sellers react to the buyer’s market, house hunters don’t have many options.
• Economic uncertainty. Redfin agents say some house hunters are backing off because they’re concerned about potential layoffs, ups and downs in the stock market, and general uncertainty about tariffs, and a possible recession.

According to Redfin agents in certain parts of the country, some of the buyers who are moving forward are making offers with contingencies, and are willing to walk away during the inspection period if they don’t get what they want.

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.37% (Sept. 24)	Up from 12-month low of 6.13% a week earlier	Up from 6.15%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.26% (week ending Sept. 18)	Lowest level in nearly a year	Up from 6.09%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Essentially flat (up 0.3%) from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 19)	Up 18%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index		Down 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending Sept. 21)	Down 14%	A measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches of “homes for sale”		Down 8% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 21)	Up 6%	Google Trends
Touring activity		Up 19% from the start of the year (as of Sept. 21)	At this time last year, it was up 9% from the start of 2024	ShowingTime

Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 21, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Sept. 21, 2025	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$390,750	2.2%	Biggest increase in nearly 6 months
Median asking price	$403,675	2.6%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,579 at a 6.26% mortgage rate	4.1%	Up $14 from August’s 9-month low
Pending sales	78,559	-0.9%	First decline in nearly 3 months
New listings	90,062	0.7%
Active listings	1,200,443	8.6%	Smallest increase since Feb. 2024
Months of supply	4.4	+0.4 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	30.9%	Down from 32%
Median days on market	46	+6 days
Share of homes sold above list price	24%	Down from 28%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.4%	Down from 98.9%

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 21, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Milwaukee (11.3%) Cleveland (9.3%) Detroit (7.5%) Pittsburgh (7.5%) Nassau County, NY (6.4%)	San Francisco (-6.3%) Austin, TX (-1.2%) Houston (-0.9%) Sacramento, CA (-0.5%) Atlanta (-0.4%)	Declined in 9 metros
Pending sales	San Francisco (12.3%) Anaheim, CA (7.7%) Riverside, CA (7.1%) Chicago (7.1%) Cleveland (6.8%)	Houston (-14.4%) Las Vegas (-11.1%) Denver (-9.9%) Tampa, FL (-9.5%) Seattle (-7.4%)
New listings	Baltimore (13.1%) Pittsburgh (12.5%) Cleveland (11%) Milwaukee (10.1%) Montgomery County, PA (9.8%)	Orlando, FL (-15.9%) Tampa, FL (-13.3%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-12.4%) San Antonio (-11.8%) Riverside, CA (-11.4%)

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-rates-fall

About Redfin

Redfin is a technology-driven real estate company with the country's most-visited real estate brokerage website. As part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT), Redfin is creating an integrated homeownership platform from search to close to make the dream of homeownership more affordable and accessible for everyone. Redfin’s clients can see homes first with on-demand tours, easily apply for a home loan with Rocket Mortgage, and save thousands in fees while working with a top local agent.

You can find more information about Redfin and get the latest housing market data and research at Redfin.com/news. For more information about Rocket Companies, visit RocketCompanies.com.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250925933346/en/

Contact Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin