Schwab Trading Activity Index™: STAX Score Sees Steepest Monthly Drop Since May 2025

Key Terms

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An exchange-traded fund is an investment product that bundles many stocks, bonds, or other assets into a single package that trades on a stock exchange like an individual share; think of it as a ready-made basket you can buy or sell throughout the trading day. For investors it matters because ETFs provide easy access to broad exposure, typically lower costs and built-in diversification, and the ability to adjust positions quickly without buying each asset separately.

etfs financial

ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, are investment funds that hold a collection of stocks, bonds, or other assets, and can be bought or sold on stock exchanges like individual shares. They offer investors an easy way to diversify their holdings and access different markets or sectors without buying multiple individual assets. Because they are traded throughout the day, ETFs provide flexibility and can help investors manage risk while pursuing their financial goals.

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A monthly government measure of how many people are on payrolls in the economy excluding farm workers, private household employees and a few other categories; it counts jobs added or lost across most industries. Investors watch it like a thermometer for the labor market because big changes signal shifts in consumer spending and influence central bank decisions on interest rates, which can move stock and bond markets quickly.

producer price index financial

A producer price index measures how much prices that domestic producers receive for goods and services change over time, tracking wholesale-level inflation before it reaches consumers. Think of it as a thermometer for upstream price pressure; rising readings can squeeze company profit margins, signal broader inflation that may prompt interest-rate moves, and thus influence bond yields and stock valuations.

s&p 500 index technical

The S&P 500 Index is a broad measure of the U.S. stock market made up of 500 large companies chosen to represent many industries; think of it as a market-wide scoreboard that shows how big, established American companies are performing. Investors use it as a benchmark to judge fund and portfolio performance, to build low-cost index funds, and to gauge overall market and economic trends much like checking a thermometer for the market’s temperature.

target fed funds range financial

The target fed funds range is the interest-rate band set by the U.S. central bank for overnight loans that banks make to each other; it acts like an official guideline for short-term borrowing costs. Investors watch it because changes shift the cost of credit across the economy—similar to adjusting a thermostat—affecting consumer spending, corporate borrowing, bond yields and stock valuations, so moves can quickly change market prices and risk appetite.

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In March, five of the top 10 names for client net-buys were ETFs, not individual stocks

WESTLAKE, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 56.04 in March, down from its score of 57.32 in February. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month.

Schwab clients turned slightly bearish in March as war began in Iran, sending the STAX down 2.23% from February's long-term high. This represents the sharpest monthly decline for STAX since a 3.64% retreat last May when the market wrestled with President Trump's first round of tariffs. However, the STAX reading of 56.04 is still the highest for any recent month other than February.

As markets retreated in March, Schwab clients appeared to spend less time trying to pick individual names, concentrating instead on diversified exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Five of the top 10 highest names in terms of client net-buys during March were ETFs, not individual stocks.

"Rather than attempting to identify individual standout opportunities, investors are adopting a broader, less concentrated strategy and are seeking to diversify risk through investments in more diversified exchange-traded funds," said Joe Mazzola, Head Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Schwab. "We haven’t seen investors gravitate toward ETFs to the same extent on the net-buy list in some time. It’s likely the sudden increase in market volatility is pushing investors to broader products,” Mazzola explained.

The decline in STAX for March was the first drop for the index since December, after solid gains in January and February. The STAX fell every week of the March period, with the biggest drop in the final week when the S&P 500® Index reached eight-month lows on concerns that the war could last longer than initially expected and as oil prices stayed stubbornly near or above $100 per barrel.

Looking at broader trends among clients, long-term bullish sentiment among members of Gen-X—born between 1965 and 1980—fell slightly in March. Negative sentiment in Gen-Z—born between 1997 and 2012—declined even more, widening the gap between those groups as Gen Z remained the most bearish segment by age group and Gen X remained most bullish. Millennials and Baby Boomers also saw their STAX scores fall.

There was also a small dip in bullish sentiment among clients who identify themselves as "traders," and a larger pullback in sentiment among those who identify as "non-traders."

In March, the S&P 500 Index fell more than 7%, the steepest monthly drop for a STAX period since the S&P 500 Index fell more than 11% in September 2022. The only worse STAX period monthly performance for the S&P 500 since the decade began was during the first month of the pandemic in March 2020 when the index fell more than 13%.

Economic data in March played a secondary role amid the focus on oil, but the February nonfarm payrolls report released early that month pointed to continued economic worries that pre-dated the war, as job growth fell by 92,000. Also, the February Producer Price Index (PPI), rose far more than expected in February, indicating inflationary pressures even before crude oil staged its dramatic rally.

The Federal Reserve met in March and kept rates paused for the second meeting in a row following three rate cuts late last year that took the target fed funds range to between 3.5% and 3.75%.

From a sector point of view, March saw the best net-positive performance from Industrials, followed by Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples. Other sectors with net-positive results included Real Estate and Health Care.

Information Technology was the sector with the biggest net-negative performance in March, followed by Energy, Communication Services, and Materials. Utilities also saw negative flows.

Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included:

• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
• Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
• Micron Technology Inc. (MU)
• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included:

• Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
• Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
• Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL)
• Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)

About the STAX

The STAX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, Schwab pulls a sample from its client base of millions of funded accounts, which includes accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly STAX.

For more information on the Schwab Trading Activity Index, please visit www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax. Additionally, Schwab clients can chart the STAX using the symbol $STAX in either the thinkorswim^® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.

Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.

The STAX is not a tradable index. The STAX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for Schwab.

About Charles Schwab

At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients’ goals with passion and integrity.

More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.

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At the Company
Michael Cianfrocca
Director, Corporate Communications
(415) 930-3651
michael.cianfrocca@schwab.com

Source: The Charles Schwab Corporation