Shell plc publishes third quarter 2026 press release
Net debt fell after the ARC acquisition, while Shell expects a Netherlands pension-plan accounting loss in Q4.
Sentiment and the balance of points
Rhea-AI Sentiment reads the wording of the document, how positive or negative its language is on a 1 to 5 scale. The balance of points shown with the takes weighs what the document actually discloses, so the two can disagree, for example when a trial that missed its main goal is described in upbeat language.
Rhea-AI Summary
Shell (SHEL) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $10.814 billion, up from the previous quarter, and announced another share buyback programme. Adjusted earnings compared with $9.836 billion in Q2; income attributable to shareholders was $12.1 billion. Cash flow from operating activities fell to $21.043 billion from $21.432 billion, while net debt declined to $39.7 billion from $41.8 billion.
The $5 billion buyback covers the next three months. Shell completed its ARC Resources acquisition on September 2 and made a final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2. Its 2026 cash capital expenditure outlook, including ARC, is $23–25 billion. Refining margins rose, while Upstream and Marketing adjusted earnings fell quarter over quarter. Shell expects a Q4 non-cash loss from derecognising its Netherlands defined benefit plan; the September 30 estimate was $6.4 billion, subject to change.
How this balance works
Rhea-AI gives every point it takes from this document a weight. Minor counts 1, Moderate 3 and Major 9, so one Major point outweighs several Minor ones. The bar adds up the weights on each side, and when neither side holds more than 65% of the total the balance reads Mixed.
It reads the document as published, with the same rules for every company, and it does not look at what the market expected or at how the stock traded, so a point can be objectively good on a day the stock falls.
Rhea-AI Sentiment measures something else, the tone of the wording.
Hollow bars mark forward-looking points. How the balance works
Positive
- Moderate pointAdjusted earnings rose to $10.814 billion in Q3 2026 from $9.836 billion in Q2.
- Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.$5 billion share buyback programme announced for the next three months. 1.7% of market cap
- Moderate pointARC Resources acquisition completed September 2, 2026, expanding Shell’s Integrated Gas business.
- Moderate pointLNG Canada Phase 2 reached a final investment decision.
- Minor pointNet debt declined to $39.7 billion from $41.8 billion in Q2 2026.
18 minor points
- Minor pointAdjusted EBITDA, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, rose to $22.736 billion from $20.710 billion.
- Minor pointUS Mobility acquisition completed as part of Shell’s portfolio changes.
- Minor pointDivestment proceeds increased to $2.7 billion from $0.5 billion in Q2 2026.
- Minor pointIntegrated Gas adjusted earnings reached $3.037 billion, higher than Q2, reflecting higher gas and LNG prices.
- Minor pointChemicals & Products adjusted earnings reached $3.855 billion, higher than Q2, reflecting higher refining margins.
- Minor pointRenewables & Energy Solutions adjusted earnings reached $289 million, higher than Q2, mainly from trading and optimisation.
- Minor pointIntegrated Gas production rose to 772 thousand barrels of oil equivalent daily from 631 thousand in Q2.
- Minor pointIntegrated Gas realised gas price rose to $8.3 per thousand standard cubic feet from $7.2 in Q2.
- Minor pointLNG sales volumes rose to 19.3 million tonnes from 18.0 million in Q2.
- Minor pointUpstream realised gas price rose to $10.0 per thousand standard cubic feet from $8.3 in Q2.
- Minor pointMarketing sales volumes rose to 2,581 thousand barrels daily from 2,570 thousand in Q2.
- Minor pointMobility sales volumes rose to 1,888 thousand barrels daily from 1,867 thousand in Q2.
- Minor pointGlobal indicative refining margin rose to $42 per barrel from $24 in Q2.
- Minor pointChemicals sales volumes rose to 2,369 thousand tonnes from 2,281 thousand in Q2.
- Minor pointChemicals manufacturing plant utilisation rose to 84% from 83% in Q2.
- Minor pointExternal power sales rose to 74 terawatt-hours from 70 in Q2.
- Minor pointRenewable generation capacity in operation rose to 4.6 gigawatts from 4.5 in Q2.
- Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Q4 Integrated Gas production outlook: 1,080–1,180 thousand barrels of oil equivalent daily, reflecting the ARC acquisition.
Negative
- Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Estimated $6.4 billion non-cash pension loss expected in Q4; September 30 estimate remains subject to change. 2.1% of market cap
- Moderate pointFree cash flow fell to $16.3 billion from $17.5 billion in Q2 2026.
- Moderate pointCash capital expenditure increased to $7.922 billion from $4.237 billion in Q2 2026.
- Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.2026 cash capital expenditure outlook is $23–25 billion, including ARC.
- Moderate pointUpstream adjusted earnings fell to $3.189 billion versus Q2, reflecting lower liquids prices and higher well write-offs.
19 minor points
- Minor pointOperating cash flow fell to $21.043 billion in Q3 2026 from $21.432 billion in Q2.
- Minor point$0.6 billion working capital outflow in Q3 reflected reduced joint-venture deposits, versus Q2’s $3.4 billion inflow.
- Minor point$2.4 billion emissions-certificate payment timing outflow related to Germany’s Fuel Emissions Trading Act.
- Minor pointMarketing adjusted earnings fell to $1.164 billion versus Q2, reflecting weaker Mobility margins and lower Lubricants volumes.
- Minor pointMarketing operating cash flow was negative $210 million in Q3 2026.
- Minor pointCorporate adjusted loss widened to $705 million from approximately $0.6 billion in Q2.
- Minor pointCorporate operating cash flow was negative $719 million in Q3 2026.
- Minor pointMiddle East outages affected operations during Q3 2026.
- Minor pointIntegrated Gas realised liquids price fell to $69 per barrel from $80 in Q2.
- Minor pointLNG liquefaction volumes fell to 7.4 million tonnes from 7.7 million in Q2.
- Minor pointUpstream realised liquids price fell to $84 per barrel from $89 in Q2.
- Minor pointUpstream production fell to 1,802 thousand barrels of oil equivalent daily from 1,824 thousand in Q2.
- Minor pointLubricants sales volumes fell to 66 thousand barrels daily from 75 thousand in Q2.
- Minor pointRefinery processing intake fell to 1,211 thousand barrels daily from 1,267 thousand in Q2.
- Minor pointRefinery utilisation fell to 96% from 102% in Q2.
- Minor pointGlobal indicative chemical margin fell to $208 per tonne from $270 in Q2.
- Minor pointChemicals & Products trading and optimisation declined versus Q2, driven by non-cash timing effects.
- Minor pointPipeline gas sales to end-use customers fell to 158 terawatt-hours from 161 in Q2.
- Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Q4 Upstream production outlook includes weather-related impacts in the Gulf of America.
Key Figures
- Adjusted earnings
- $10.8 billion
- Q3 2026
- CFFO
- $21.0 billion
- Q3 2026, despite Middle East outages
- Share buyback programme
- $5 billion
- Announced for the next three months
- Cash capex outlook
- $23–25 billion
- 2026 outlook, including ARC
- Gearing
- 16.6%
- Post-ARC acquisition
- Net debt
- $39.7 billion
- Q3 2026
- Free cash flow
- $16.3 billion
- Q3 2026
- Expected non-cash loss
- $6.4 billion
- Q4 2026; estimate as at September 30, subject to change
Key Terms
final investment decision technical
non-gaap financial
free cash flow financial
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
London, October 29, 2026
"Shell’s relentless focus on operational performance enabled very strong results in a quarter with continued severe disruption to the global energy system. I’m grateful to Shell’s teams around the world who continue to work tirelessly to produce and supply the energy our customers need.
We are further investing in our advantaged Integrated Gas business with the completion of the ARC Resources Ltd. acquisition and the final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2, supporting Shell’s long-term cash flow growth.
Our strong delivery allows us to announce a
Shell plc Chief Executive Officer, Wael Sawan
STRONG AND CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
- Q3 2026 Adjusted Earnings1 of
$10.8 billion , reflects strong operational performance in a continued volatile and elevated commodity price environment with record refining margins. - CFFO of
$21.0 billion despite Middle East outages. - Continued portfolio strengthening, including the ARC Resources and US Mobility acquisitions, FID on LNG Canada Phase 2, high-grading of the power portfolio, and divestment of non-core oil and gas assets in the US and Cyprus.
- Disciplined spending, with the cash capex outlook for 2026 (including ARC) in the
$23 - 25 billion range. - Strong balance sheet with post-ARC acquisition gearing of
16.6% (2.7% excluding leases). - Announced
$5 billion buybacks for the next 3 months.
| $ million1 | Adj. Earnings | Adj. EBITDA | CFFO | Cash capex | |
| Integrated Gas | 3,037 | 5,184 | 4,606 | 4,756 | |
| Upstream | 3,189 | 9,269 | 7,281 | 1,691 | |
| Marketing | 1,164 | 1,986 | (210) | 415 | |
| Chemicals & Products2 | 3,855 | 6,201 | 8,527 | 678 | |
| Renewables & Energy Solutions | 289 | 373 | 1,558 | 342 | |
| Corporate | (705) | (277) | (719) | 40 | |
| Less: Non-controlling interest (NCI) | 14 | ||||
| Shell | Q3 2026 | 10,814 | 22,736 | 21,043 | 7,922 |
| Q2 2026 | 9,836 | 20,710 | 21,432 | 4,237 | |
1Income/(loss) attributable to shareholders for Q3 2026 is
2Chemicals & Products Adjusted Earnings at a subsegment level are as follows: Chemicals
- CFFO excluding working capital of
$21.7 billion in Q3 2026 with tax paid of$3.2 billion and$2.4 billion outflow related to the timing impact of payments for emissions certificates relating to the German BEHG1, offset by a derivative inflow of$3.4 billion . - Working capital outflow of
$0.6 billion reflects a reduction in JV deposits.$0.8 billion of the JV dividends received were previously held in deposit in the Corporate segment. - Net debt of
$39.7 billion includes ~$8 billion non-cash net debt reflecting variable component of long-term shipping leases in the current macro environment. Net debt excluding leases is$5.6 billion .
| $ billion2 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
| Working capital | — | 1.3 | (11.2) | 3.4 | (0.6) |
| Divestment proceeds | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Free cash flow | 10.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 17.5 | 16.3 |
| Net debt | 41.2 | 45.7 | 52.6 | 41.8 | 39.7 |
1Brennstoffemissionshandelsgesetz (Fuel Emissions Trading Act), historically paid in the 4th quarter of each calendar year.
2Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly unaudited results, available on www.shell.com/investors.
Q3 2026 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVERS
INTEGRATED GAS
| Key data | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 outlook |
| Realised liquids price ($/bbl) | 80 | 69 | — |
| Realised gas price ($/thousand scf) | 7.2 | 8.3 | — |
| Production (kboe/d) | 631 | 772 | 1,080 - 1,180 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.3 - 7.9 |
| LNG sales volumes (MT) | 18.0 | 19.3 | — |
- Adjusted Earnings were higher than in Q2 2026, reflecting higher gas and LNG prices. Trading and Optimisation was in line with Q2 2026.
- Q4 2026 production outlook reflects the ARC Resources acquisition, which completed on September 2, 2026.
UPSTREAM
| Key data | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 outlook |
| Realised liquids price ($/bbl) | 89 | 84 | — |
| Realised gas price ($/thousand scf) | 8.3 | 10.0 | — |
| Liquids production (kboe/d) | 1,367 | 1,360 | — |
| Gas production (million scf/d) | 2,648 | 2,562 | — |
| Total production (kboe/d) | 1,824 | 1,802 | 1,700 - 1,900 |
- Adjusted Earnings were lower than in Q2 2026, reflecting lower liquids prices and higher well write-offs.
- Q4 2026 production outlook includes allowance for weather-related impacts in the Gulf of America.
MARKETING
| Key data | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 outlook |
| Marketing sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,570 | 2,581 | 2,400 - 2,600 |
| Mobility (kb/d) | 1,867 | 1,888 | — |
| Lubricants (kb/d) | 75 | 66 | — |
| Sectors & Decarbonisation (kb/d) | 627 | 627 | — |
- Adjusted Earnings were lower than in Q2 2026, reflecting weaker Mobility unit margins and lower Lubricants volumes.
CHEMICALS & PRODUCTS
| Key data | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 outlook |
| Refinery processing intake (kb/d) | 1,267 | 1,211 | — |
| Chemicals sales volumes (kT) | 2,281 | 2,369 | — |
| Refinery utilisation (%) | 102 | 96 | 92 - 100 |
| Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation (%) | 83 | 84 | 78 - 86 |
| Global indicative refining margin ($/bbl) | 24 | 42 | — |
| Global indicative chemical margin ($/t) | 270 | 208 | — |
- Adjusted Earnings were significantly higher than in Q2 2026, reflecting high refining margins and strong operational performance despite low water levels in the Rhine river.
- Trading and Optimisation was lower than in a very strong Q2 2026, driven by the impact of non-cash timing effects.
RENEWABLES & ENERGY SOLUTIONS
| Key data | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
| External power sales (TWh) | 70 | 74 |
| Sales of pipeline gas to end-use customers (TWh) | 161 | 158 |
| Renewables power generation capacity (GW)* | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 1.7 | 1.6 |
*Excludes Shell's equity share of associates where information cannot be obtained.
- Adjusted Earnings were higher than in Q2 2026, mainly driven by Trading and Optimisation in Europe and the Americas.
CORPORATE
| Key data | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 outlook |
| Adjusted Earnings ($ billion) | (0.6) | (0.7) | (0.8) - (0.6) |
- Shell Q4 2026 income/(loss) is expected to include the derecognition of the Netherlands defined benefit plan, which is expected to result in an identified, non-cash loss. As at 30 September, 2026, the estimated loss is
$6.4 billion , subject to change in Q4. See Note 7 of the quarterly unaudited results, available on www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results, for further details.
UPCOMING INVESTOR EVENTS
February 4, 2027 Capital Markets Update 2027 & Fourth quarter 2026 results and dividends
April 29, 2027 First quarter 2027 results and dividends
July 29, 2027 Second quarter 2027 results and dividends
October 28, 2027 Third quarter 2027 results and dividends
USEFUL LINKS
Capital Markets Day 2025 materials
LNG Portfolio - Strategic Spotlight 2026
Impact of Middle East conflict
ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE (NON-GAAP) MEASURES
This announcement includes certain measures that are calculated and presented on the basis of methodologies other than in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) such as IFRS, including Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, CFFO excluding working capital movements, Cash capital expenditure, free cash flow, Divestment proceeds and Net debt. This information, along with comparable GAAP measures, is useful to investors because it provides a basis for measuring Shell plc’s operating performance and ability to retire debt and invest in new business opportunities. Shell plc’s management uses these financial measures, along with the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, in evaluating the business performance.
This announcement may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as free cash flow and underlying operating expenses. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward-looking non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile the non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of the company, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measures with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are estimated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plc’s consolidated financial statements.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience to reference Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. The terms “joint venture”, “joint operations”, “joint arrangements”, and “associates” may also be used to refer to a commercial arrangement in which Shell has a direct or indirect ownership interest with one or more parties. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions, including (without limitation) those concerning Shell’s strategy and operating plans, macroeconomic conditions, future energy demand, supply and product mix, commodity prices, demand for Shell’s products, production results and reserve estimates, development, execution and management of projects, energy transition and climate change, management of safety and environmental risks, costs, cash capital expenditures, technology advancements, legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments, regional conflicts and trading conditions, and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”; “ambition”; ‘‘anticipate’’; “aspire”; “aspiration”; ‘‘believe’’; “commit”; “commitment”; ‘‘could’’; “desire”; ‘‘estimate’’; ‘‘expect’’; ‘‘goals’’; ‘‘intend’’; ‘‘may’’; “milestones”; ‘‘objectives’’; ‘‘outlook’’; ‘‘plan’’; ‘‘probably’’; ‘‘project’’; ‘‘risks’’; “schedule”; ‘‘seek’’; ‘‘should’’; ‘‘target’’; “vision”; ‘‘will’’; “would” and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks, including climate change; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including tariffs and regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, regional conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East, and a significant cyber security, data privacy or IT incident; (n) the pace of the energy transition; and (o) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025 (available at www.shell.com/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.html and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this announcement and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, October 29, 2026. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this announcement.
All amounts shown throughout this announcement are unaudited. The numbers presented throughout this announcement may not sum precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures, due to rounding.
The content of websites referred to in this announcement does not form part of this announcement.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
The financial information presented in this announcement does not constitute statutory accounts within the meaning of section 434(3) of the Companies Act 2006 (“the Act”). Statutory accounts for the year ended December 31, 2025 were published in Shell’s Annual Report and Accounts, a copy of which was delivered to the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales, and in Shell’s Form 20-F. The auditor’s report on those accounts was unqualified, did not include a reference to any matters to which the auditor drew attention by way of emphasis without qualifying the report and did not contain a statement under sections 498(2) or 498(3) of the Act.
The information in this announcement does not constitute the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements which are contained in Shell’s third quarter 2026 unaudited results available on www.shell.com/investors.
CONTACTS
- Media: International +44 (0) 207 934 5550; U.S. and Canada: https://www.shell.us/about-us/news-and-insights/media/submit-an-inquiry.html
FAQ
AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
How much did Shell earn in Q3 2026?
Shell reported $10.814 billion in adjusted earnings for Q3 2026, compared with $9.836 billion in Q2. Income attributable to shareholders was $12.1 billion. Adjusted earnings are a non-GAAP measure, meaning they use a methodology outside generally accepted accounting principles.
What operating outlook did Shell give for Q4 2026?
Shell’s Q4 outlook includes Upstream production of 1,700–1,900 thousand barrels of oil equivalent daily and LNG liquefaction volumes of 7.3–7.9 million tonnes. Marketing sales volumes are expected at 2,400–2,600 thousand barrels daily. Refinery utilisation is forecast at 92–100%, and chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation at 78–86%.
How much of Shell’s Q3 2026 net debt relates to leases?
Shell’s net debt was $5.6 billion excluding leases, compared with total net debt of $39.7 billion. Total net debt included approximately $8 billion of non-cash net debt reflecting the variable component of long-term shipping leases. Post-ARC acquisition gearing was 16.6%, or 2.7% excluding leases.