S&P Global Mobility projects moderate U.S. auto sales for June 2025 at 1.27 million units
Rhea-AI Summary
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) projects U.S. light vehicle sales for June 2025 to reach 1.27 million units, representing a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million units. This follows May's SAAR of 15.7 million units, indicating a continued moderation in sales pace after stronger March-April results.
The automotive market faces challenges with new vehicle affordability concerns expected to worsen in the second half of the year due to potential upward pricing adjustments and tariff impacts. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales share is projected at 7% for June, showing moderation from January's peak of over 8%.
Light truck SAAR is estimated at 13.0 million units, while passenger car SAAR stands at 2.6 million units. The June forecast reflects fewer selling days (24) compared to both June 2024 (26 days) and May 2025 (27 days).
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Positive
- Light vehicle SAAR projected at 15.6M units, up from 15.0M in June 2024
- Light truck SAAR shows growth to 13.0M units compared to 12.3M in June 2024
- BEV sales maintaining 7% market share despite market challenges
Negative
- Second consecutive month of milder sales pace after March-April strength
- New vehicle affordability expected to worsen in second half of 2025
- BEV sales growth moderating with share decline from January's 8% peak
- Potential upward pricing pressure from tariff-impacted inventory
News Market Reaction – SPGI
On the day this news was published, SPGI gained 1.85%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
- New light vehicle sales in June expected to maintain pace with the mild result of previous month
- Battery Electric Vehicle estimated shares for June expected at
7%
The anticipated June 2025 volume translates to an estimated annual sales pace of 15.6 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), aligned with the May downshift (15.7M SAAR), as both months declined after the pull-ahead effect evident in the March-April results.
"Automakers and consumer alike continue to digest an uneasy and uncertain environment," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While we saw strong March and April sales levels, June brings a second consecutive month of milder pace for auto demand. New vehicle affordability concerns are expected to worsen in the second half of the year under potential upward pricing adjustments. We see these pressures particularly as inventory subject to tariffs begins to replace pre-tariff product."
Jun 25 (Est) | May 25 | Jun 24 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,272,300 | 1,466,595 | 1,309,997 |
In millions, SAAR | 15.6 | 15.7 | 15.0 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.0 | 13.1 | 12.3 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales
According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, estimated share of BEV sales for both May and June is expected around the
Continued development of BEV sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast, although an unsettled regulatory and incentive policy environment has raised the potential that future growth rates will be more mild. In the immediate term, month-to-month share volatility is anticipated.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
mobilitycomms@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility