Ford Earnings: Ford Raises Its 2026 Adjusted EBIT Forecast and Moves Ford Pro to the Bottom of Its Earlier Range
Ford raised the bottom of its 2026 adjusted EBIT forecast to $10.5 billion from $10 billion on October 28, keeping the top at $11 billion. Its work truck and van business, Ford Pro, now sits at the bottom of its July range, and Ford Blue, the gas and hybrid unit, at the top.
The short answer. Ford expects a slightly better 2026 than it did in July, with more resting on gas and hybrid models and less on Ford Pro, its biggest earner. For anyone without Ford shares, that shows where a big carmaker makes money today: gas and hybrid models, work vehicles and car loans, not electric cars. Here each Ford forecast sits beside the July one, and we work out what the yearly forecast leaves for October to December.
Ford 2026 forecast after the third quarter
On this page
- Ford earnings report: Ford raises its 2026 adjusted EBIT forecast and moves Ford Pro to the bottom of its range
- Ford Pro, Ford Blue, Model e and Ford Credit: Ford results by business
- Ford Q3 2026 earnings per share against expectations, and why net income fell
- Ford dividend, buybacks, share count and debt
- Ford Q4 2026 earnings: what the adjusted EBIT forecast leaves for the fourth quarter
- Frequently asked questions
Ford earnings report: Ford raises its 2026 adjusted EBIT forecast and moves Ford Pro to the bottom of its range
Ford expects a slightly better year than it did in July. Its gas and hybrid unit now sits at the top of its earlier range, and its work truck and van business at the bottom.
Only the bottom of the company forecast moved. Ford now expects $10.5 billion to $11 billion of adjusted EBIT, against $10 billion to $11 billion in its July 28 results release.
Adjusted EBIT is earnings before interest and taxes, leaving out what Ford calls special items, such as restructuring costs and pension gains and losses.
The October 28 release does not say which business the higher floor comes from. Its forecast for each business, set beside the July one, shows how they moved.
Ford Blue, the gas and hybrid business, is now expected to earn about $5.5 billion in EBIT, the top of its July range.
Ford Pro moved the other way, to about $7 billion, the bottom of its July range. Pro remains the business Ford expects to earn the most.
Ford Credit, which lends to car buyers and dealers, now has a firm figure: about $2.8 billion before taxes. In July Ford said only that it would be above $2.5 billion.
The loss forecast for Model e, the electric vehicle unit, stayed at about $4 billion. The forecasts for capital spending and for adjusted free cash flow, a cash measure Ford defines itself, did not change either.
Two of Ford’s assumptions rose. It now assumes U.S. industry prices about 1% above a year earlier, against about 0.5% in July. It also assumes U.S. sales at a yearly pace of 16.5 million vehicles, the top of its July range.
Ford expects commodity costs nearly $2.5 billion higher than in 2025. Its forecast leaves out two risks, a significant escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a material U.S. downturn. Ford says either could hit demand substantially.
Chief financial officer Sherry House said: “We are on track to deliver our full-year adjusted EBIT expectations, which include achieving our warranty and material cost reduction objectives and improving year-over-year profitability in Ford Model e.”
That forecast counts on two things. One is $1 billion of savings on materials and warranty repairs this year. That figure leaves out the effects of tariffs and of Novelis, an aluminum supplier. The other is a smaller Model e loss than in 2025.
| Full-year 2026 forecast | July 28 | October 28 | Where it moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company adjusted EBIT | $10 billion to $11 billion | $10.5 billion to $11 billion | Low end up $0.5 billion |
| Ford Blue EBIT | $5 billion to $5.5 billion | About $5.5 billion | Top of the July range |
| Ford Pro EBIT | $7 billion to $7.5 billion | About $7 billion | Bottom of the July range |
| Ford Model e EBIT | Loss of about $4 billion | Loss of about $4 billion | Unchanged |
| Ford Credit earnings before taxes | Above $2.5 billion | About $2.8 billion | A firm figure in place of a floor |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $6 billion to $7 billion | $6 billion to $7 billion | Unchanged |
| Capital spending | $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion | $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion | Unchanged |
| U.S. industry pricing, year over year | Up about 0.5% | Up about 1% | Higher |
| U.S. industry sales, yearly pace | 16.0 million to 16.5 million | 16.5 million | Top of the July range |
Source: Ford second quarter 2026 results release, July 28, 2026, and third quarter 2026 results release, October 28, 2026, outlook sections.
Ford Pro, Ford Blue, Model e and Ford Credit: Ford results by business
Ford Pro and Ford Blue earned less than a year before, and a smaller Model e loss and a stronger Ford Credit made up for it. Ford’s yearly forecast implies the largest Model e loss of 2026 in the fourth quarter, by our calculation.
Ford Pro and Ford Blue together earned $468 million less than a year earlier, by our calculation. Model e’s smaller loss and Ford Credit’s higher profit added $524 million.
Ford Pro earned $1.7 billion in EBIT, down 16%. Ford tied the drop to higher commodity costs and to temporary launch costs as Super Duty production began at its Oakville Assembly Complex. Lower tariffs and a favorable product mix partly offset them.
Ford Blue earned $1.4 billion, down 10%. Ford cited lower volume after it discontinued some products, the effect of the Middle East conflict within that region and higher commodity costs.
Ford Credit earned $803 million before taxes, up 27%. Ford credited gains from valuing derivatives at market prices, healthy financing margins and firm used vehicle prices.
Model e lost $1.06 billion, 25% less than a year earlier. Its revenue fell by almost a third, though, so the loss grew as a share of revenue.
Within 2026 the loss has grown every quarter, to $1.06 billion in the third from $777 million in the first.
In July, Ford said its Model e forecast included about $1 billion of extra spending, mostly in the second half of the year. The money goes to its Universal Electric Vehicle platform for lower-priced electric models and to Ford Energy. Ford has not said how much of the larger quarterly losses that spending explains.
The yearly forecast of about $4 billion leaves a fourth-quarter Model e loss of about $1.2 billion, by our calculation.
| Third quarter 2026 | Revenue | Profit measure | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Pro | $17.8 billion (up 2%) | EBIT $1,665 million (2025: $1,985 million) | 9.4% (2025: 11.4%) |
| Ford Blue | $27.1 billion (down 3%) | EBIT $1,392 million (2025: $1,540 million) | 5.1% (2025: 5.5%) |
| Ford Model e | $1.2 billion (down 31%) | EBIT loss of $1,058 million (2025: loss of $1,410 million) | Minus 86.5% (2025: minus 79.1%) |
| Ford Credit | Not in the segment table | Earnings before taxes $803 million (2025: $631 million) | Not given |
Show the data
| Model e EBIT, 2026 | Loss | Same quarter of 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| First quarter | $777 million | $849 million |
| Second quarter | $919 million | $1,329 million |
| Third quarter | $1,058 million | $1,410 million |
Source: Ford results releases for the first quarter (April 29, 2026), second quarter (July 28, 2026) and third quarter (October 28, 2026) of 2026, business segment tables and Ford Credit income statement. Wholesale units in the third quarter: Ford Pro 358,000, Ford Blue 657,000, Model e 34,000.
Ford Q3 2026 earnings per share against expectations, and why net income fell
On its adjusted measure, Ford earned more per share than analysts expected and more than a year earlier. It sold fewer vehicles, and its net income fell because of taxes.
Adjusted earnings per share were 49 cents, against 40 cents in the consensus compiled by LSEG and 45 cents a year earlier.
Revenue slipped 2% to $49.5 billion. Wholesale shipments, the vehicles Ford and its affiliates sold to dealers and other buyers, fell 9% to 1,049,000.
Profit before taxes rose to $2.1 billion from $1.8 billion. Net income still fell, to $2 billion from $2.4 billion.
Taxes made the difference. A year earlier Ford booked a tax benefit of $630 million, and this time it recorded tax expense of $97 million.
Adjusted EBIT rose to $2.7 billion from $2.6 billion. Its margin, adjusted EBIT as a share of revenue, reached 5.4% against 5.1%.
Chief executive Jim Farley said Ford’s “cost actions and record growth in software services and parts” are moving it “toward an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029.” Ford is counting on sales beyond the car itself to carry part of that climb.
Ford shares closed the regular session at $11.94, before the 4:05 p.m. ET release. An after-hours trade at 5:30 p.m. ET was at $11.79, 15 cents lower, according to StockTitan real-time Nasdaq data.
Show the data
| Ford, third quarter | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale units | 1,156,000 | 1,049,000 | Down 9% |
| Revenue | $50.5 billion | $49.5 billion | Down 2% |
| Income before income taxes | $1,818 million | $2,146 million | Up $328 million |
| Income taxes | Benefit of $630 million | Expense of $97 million | |
| Net income attributable to Ford | $2,447 million | $2,049 million | Down $398 million |
| Diluted earnings per share | $0.60 | $0.50 | Down $0.10 |
| Adjusted EBIT | $2,586 million | $2,658 million | Up $72 million |
| Adjusted EBIT margin | 5.1% | 5.4% | Up 0.3 points |
| Adjusted earnings per share, diluted | $0.45 | $0.49 | Up $0.04 |
| Operating cash flow | $7.4 billion | $5.4 billion | Down $2.0 billion |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $4.3 billion | $4.7 billion | Up $0.4 billion |
Source: Ford third quarter 2026 results release, October 28, 2026, total company table and adjusted EBIT reconciliation. Adjusted figures are Ford’s own non-GAAP measures. Consensus: LSEG. Share prices: StockTitan real-time Nasdaq data, October 28, 2026; after-hours range $11.60 to $12.25.
Ford dividend, buybacks, share count and debt
Ford keeps its dividend at 15 cents a share and bought back some stock this year. Its borrowing outside the lending arm rose this year, and its cash fell.
The fourth-quarter dividend of 15 cents a share is payable on December 1 to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 10.
Ford bought back $311 million of its own shares in the first nine months of 2026, after none a year earlier. Its diluted share count still edged up, to 4.08 billion.
Debt outside Ford Credit was $23.7 billion at the end of September, up from $21.9 billion at the end of 2025.
Ford ended September with $25.3 billion in cash, not counting Ford Credit, down from nearly $29 billion at the end of 2025. That cash is still larger than the debt outside Ford Credit.
| Ford owner figures | Value | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Regular dividend, fourth quarter 2026 | 15 cents a share | Payable December 1, record date November 10 |
| Share buybacks, first nine months | $311 million | None in the first nine months of 2025 |
| Diluted shares, third quarter | 4,076 million | 4,048 million a year earlier |
| Debt excluding Ford Credit, September 30 | $23,689 million | $21,919 million on December 31, 2025 |
| Ford Credit debt, September 30 | $139,393 million | $141,417 million on December 31, 2025 |
| Cash excluding Ford Credit, September 30 | $25.3 billion | Nearly $29 billion on December 31, 2025 |
| Liquidity, September 30 | $46.4 billion | As stated by Ford |
Source: Ford third quarter 2026 results release, October 28, 2026, text, balance sheets, cash flow statement and earnings per share reconciliation; year-end 2025 cash from the fourth quarter 2025 release.
Ford Q4 2026 earnings: what the adjusted EBIT forecast leaves for the fourth quarter
The yearly forecast leaves less adjusted EBIT for October to December than any earlier quarter of 2026 reported, by our calculation. A one-time tariff benefit in the first quarter makes that gap look bigger than it is.
Ford earned $8.6 billion of adjusted EBIT from January to September. Its forecast therefore leaves $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion for the fourth quarter, by our calculation.
Each of the first three quarters reported at least $2.5 billion. The first quarter, though, included a one-time $1.3 billion benefit for tariffs Ford had paid between March 2025 and February 2026.
Without that benefit the first quarter comes to about $2.2 billion, inside the fourth-quarter range, by our calculation.
The fourth quarter of 2025 earned $1.0 billion, according to Ford’s fourth quarter 2025 release. Even the bottom of the range would be well above it. Ford gives no forecast for a single quarter, so these figures are arithmetic on its yearly range.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $1.0B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.0B |
| Q1 2026 | $3.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B |
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B |
Adjusted free cash flow is Ford’s own cash measure. It counts payouts from Ford Credit and leaves out some costs, such as restructuring.
Ford brought in $4.9 billion of it through September. The unchanged forecast leaves $1.1 billion to $2.1 billion for the fourth quarter, by our calculation, after an outflow of $2.1 billion in the same quarter of 2025.
So the adjusted EBIT the forecast leaves for the fourth quarter is below every earlier quarter of 2026 as reported, and well above the same quarter of 2025.
What to watch
- Whether the fourth quarter reaches the $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion of adjusted EBIT the forecast implies: Ford’s full-year 2026 results, date not yet announced.
- How large the fourth-quarter Model e loss turns out: Ford’s full-year 2026 results, the same report.
Our numbers
- $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion of adjusted EBIT for the fourth quarter of 2026: Ford’s $10.5 billion to $11 billion forecast minus the $8,649 million it earned through September.
- About $2.2 billion of first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBIT without the tariff benefit: the reported $3,488 million minus the $1.3 billion one-time benefit.
- $468 million less from Ford Pro and Ford Blue in the third quarter: the two units’ changes against a year earlier, added together.
- $524 million more from Model e and Ford Credit: the same sum for those two units.
- About $1.2 billion of Model e loss for the fourth quarter: Ford’s forecast of about $4 billion minus the $2,754 million lost through September.
- $1.1 billion to $2.1 billion of adjusted free cash flow for the fourth quarter: Ford’s $6 billion to $7 billion forecast minus the $4,887 million it brought in through September.
Frequently asked questions
Did Ford beat earnings expectations?
On adjusted earnings per share, yes. Ford reported 49 cents for the third quarter of 2026, against 40 cents in the consensus compiled by LSEG.
Did Ford raise its 2026 guidance?
It raised the low end. On October 28, 2026, Ford put its full-year adjusted EBIT forecast at $10.5 billion to $11 billion, up from $10 billion to $11 billion. It kept adjusted free cash flow at $6 billion to $7 billion.
How much is Ford losing on electric vehicles?
Model e, Ford’s electric vehicle business, lost $1.06 billion in EBIT from July to September 2026 and $2.75 billion in the first nine months. Ford expects a loss of about $4 billion for the year.
When is the next Ford dividend paid?
Ford declared a regular dividend of 15 cents a share, payable on December 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 10, 2026.
When does Ford report earnings next?
Ford has not announced the date of its fourth-quarter 2026 report. It filed its fourth-quarter 2025 results with the SEC on February 10, 2026.
Sources
- Ford Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results, October 28, 2026 (StockTitan)
- Ford Motor Company (F) overview on StockTitan
- Ford third quarter 2026 results release, exhibit 99 to Form 8-K, October 28, 2026 (SEC)
- Ford second quarter 2026 results release, exhibit 99 to Form 8-K, July 28, 2026 (SEC)
- Ford first quarter 2026 results release, exhibit 99 to Form 8-K, April 29, 2026 (SEC)
- Ford fourth quarter 2025 results release, exhibit 99 to Form 8-K, February 10, 2026 (SEC)
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