FTNT Stock: Fortinet Raises 2026 Sales Forecast, Cuts Service Revenue Forecast
Fortinet raised its 2026 revenue forecast on October 28 by $70 million at the range’s middle, the smallest of its three raises this year, by our calculation. On our figures, products carry all of it: the release cut its forecast for service revenue, the subscriptions and support customers pay over time, for the first time this year.
The short answer. By our calculation the product forecast implied by Fortinet’s ranges rose $110 million while the service forecast fell $40 million. At 4:53 p.m. ET in after-hours trading, FTNT traded 25.5% below its $174.08 close, StockTitan real-time Nasdaq data show. For anyone following spending on cyber defense, it shows firewall and other product sales still growing fast while the recurring side grows far more slowly. We derive the product forecast Fortinet does not publish from its own ranges, and set all four 2026 forecasts and the buyback figures side by side.
Fortinet's October 28 update in three numbers
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FTNT stock and the three Fortinet guidance raises of 2026
Fortinet has now raised its 2026 sales forecast, its guidance, in May, July and October. The October step is the smallest, $70 million against $310 million in July.
At 4:53 p.m. ET, in after-hours trading that followed the release, FTNT stock traded 25.5% below its $174.08 close, according to StockTitan real-time Nasdaq data.
Fortinet began the year expecting revenue of $7.50 billion to $7.70 billion, in its February 5 release. It raised the range in May and again in July.
On October 28 it moved the range to $8.125 billion to $8.215 billion, which the third quarter release calls 20% growth.
Measured at the middle of each range, the three steps on revenue were $190 million, $310 million and then $70 million.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| May 6 | $190M |
| July 29 | $310M |
| October 28 | $70M |
Chief executive Ken Xie said the quarter allowed Fortinet “to raise our 2026 billings guidance for the third time this year.” Billings, Fortinet’s measure of what it invoiced in a period, multi-year service contracts included, show the same shape. The full-year billings forecast rose $193 million this time, against $500 million in July, by our calculation.
Part of any raise is the quarter already finished. Third quarter revenue beat the middle of the range Fortinet gave in July by $23 million, against $168 million in the second quarter, and it landed inside the range, below its top.
Show the data
| Item | Low | High | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.700B | $1.760B | $1.850B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.830B | $1.930B | $2.048B |
| Q3 2026 | $2.010B | $2.100B | $2.078B |
About $47 million of the annual forecast increase remains after the third quarter’s beat against the July middle, by our calculation.
The fourth quarter forecast points to slower growth. At the middle of its range, Fortinet’s earnings presentation puts fourth quarter revenue growth at 15%, after 20% in the third quarter.
Profit came in above the range. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.91, a measure that leaves out stock pay and some one-time items, against the $0.83 to $0.87 Fortinet had forecast. How a company’s own forecast differs from analysts’ estimates is in our explainer on guidance versus consensus estimates.
Fourth quarter forecast at the middle of its range: billings growth of 20%, after 29% in the third quarter. Third quarter earnings per share under standard accounting rules (GAAP): $0.86.
Source: Fortinet Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation, slide 24; Fortinet Q3 2026 results release, October 28, 2026.
Fortinet earnings and product revenue growth
Product sales are carrying Fortinet’s year. They grew 37% in the third quarter, while product gross margin fell to 64.4%.
Product revenue, which Fortinet’s presentation splits between hardware and software, reached $765.0 million in the third quarter, up 37% from $559.3 million a year earlier.
That growth is slower than the 52% of the second quarter. In dollars, the third quarter sits just under the second quarter’s $773.0 million.
Fortinet gives no product revenue forecast, but its revenue and service forecasts imply one. At the middle of each range, that implied 2026 product forecast rose $110 million in October to about $3.01 billion, by our calculation.
Show the data
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| Implied product revenue | +$110M |
| Total revenue | +$70M |
| Service revenue | -$40M |
Product gross margin fell to 64.4% from 69.8% in the second quarter, measured as the share of product sales left after the cost of those products. By our count it was the lowest of the nine quarters in Fortinet’s supplemental financial tables, which reach back to the third quarter of 2024.
Inventory rose to $591.2 million on September 30 from $426.3 million at the end of June. The release gives no reason for the lower margin or the larger inventory.
Most of the product news in the release was about AI, led by a FortiGuard Inline AI Security Service that checks AI traffic for FortiGate customers from the cloud. The presentation says billings for operational technology security, which protects factory and utility machinery, grew nearly 40%.
How much did Fortinet cut its 2026 service revenue forecast?
By $40 million at the middle of the range. Fortinet’s presentation still puts 2026 growth in subscriptions and support at about 13%.
Service revenue is what customers pay over time for FortiGuard security subscriptions and technical support, and it was 63% of third quarter revenue, by our calculation.
The October range for the year tops out at $5.170 billion, below the bottom of the range Fortinet gave in July.
It is Fortinet’s first cut to its 2026 service revenue forecast. The service range had moved up in May and again in July, while the revenue, billings, operating margin (operating profit as a share of revenue) and earnings per share forecasts all went up in October.
The release does not explain the service cut. Fortinet’s presentation argues the other way for the longer run, under the heading “Leading Indicators of Future Service Revenue Growth are Accelerating.” It shows total service billings up 26% from a year earlier. Billings depend on contract length, as Fortinet’s own definition notes, and security subscription revenue grew 12% in the quarter.
Show the data
| Full-year 2026 forecast, released | Revenue | Service revenue | Billings | Non-GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 5 | $7.500B to $7.700B | $5.050B to $5.150B | $8.400B to $8.600B | $2.94 to $3.00 |
| May 6 | $7.710B to $7.870B | $5.090B to $5.150B | $8.800B to $9.100B | $3.10 to $3.16 |
| July 29 | $8.020B to $8.180B | $5.180B to $5.220B | $9.350B to $9.550B | $3.41 to $3.47 |
| October 28 | $8.125B to $8.215B | $5.150B to $5.170B | $9.568B to $9.718B | $3.54 to $3.58 |
Source: Fortinet results releases of February 5, May 6, July 29 and October 28, 2026, guidance sections.
Fortinet stock buyback, cash and debt
Fortinet spent $0 buying back its own shares in the third quarter, its cash flow tables show. It now has $2.0 billion of buyback room left.
Fortinet’s quarterly cash flow tables show buybacks shrinking through 2026, from $823.0 million in the first quarter to none in the third. A year earlier, in the third quarter of 2025, Fortinet had spent $1.83 billion. The release does not say why it made no purchases this time.
The board added $1.2 billion to the buyback authorization, a ceiling on purchases that requires none. In February the program ran through February 28, 2027, and the October release does not say whether that date changed.
Fortinet reported free cash flow of $2.84 billion for the first nine months of 2026, the cash its operations brought in after spending on property and equipment. The $2.0 billion now available is about 70% of that, by our calculation.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Cash, investments, Sep 30 | $5.32B |
| Free cash flow, Jan to Sep | $2.84B |
| Buybacks, Jan to Sep | $0.97B |
| Authorization left, Oct 28 | $2.00B |
Share repurchases in 2026: $823.0 million in the first quarter, $149.8 million in the second, none in the third. Fortinet’s free cash flow also leaves out $17.0 million it received in the third quarter from an escrow settlement tied to an earlier acquisition. An escrow is money a third party holds until the terms of a deal are met. The $1.2 billion addition alone is about 42% of the nine-month free cash flow, by our calculation. The presentation plans $180 million to $210 million of infrastructure spending in the fourth quarter.
Source: Fortinet 3Q26 Supplemental Financials, page 7; Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation, slide 25.
Cash, cash equivalents and investments added up to $5.32 billion on September 30, by our calculation. Long-term debt was $497.1 million after Fortinet repaid $500 million of its bonds in the first quarter.
Fortinet pays no dividend; none of its 2026 releases or cash flow statements shows one. Diluted shares averaged 742.6 million in the third quarter, a count that includes stock awards that can turn into shares. That is slightly more than in the second quarter and 2.4% fewer than a year earlier, by our calculation. Our guide to share buybacks and Rule 10b-18 covers how a program works.
On our reading, Fortinet’s 2026 now rests on product sales. The forecast for what customers pay over time went down in October while the implied product forecast went up. And Fortinet spent nothing on buybacks this quarter, against $1.83 billion a year earlier.
What to watch
- The terms of the larger authorization, including any new end date, and the reasons behind the lower product margin and larger inventory: Fortinet’s third quarter 2026 report on Form 10-Q, its fuller quarterly filing with the SEC, not filed on October 28.
- Whether service revenue lands inside the new $5.150 billion to $5.170 billion range, and any fourth quarter repurchases: Fortinet’s fourth quarter and full-year 2026 release, for which it has not announced a date.
Our numbers
- $70 million: the change in the middle of Fortinet’s 2026 revenue forecast from July 29 to October 28, against $190 million in May and $310 million in July.
- $193 million: the same change for the billings forecast, against $450 million and $500 million.
- $23 million: third quarter revenue above the middle of the range Fortinet gave in July, against $120 million and $168 million in the first two quarters.
- About $47 million: the October revenue raise minus the third quarter’s beat over its July range middle.
- Minus $40 million and plus $110 million: the July to October change in the middle of the service forecast and of the implied product forecast (revenue minus service).
- About 42% and about 70%: the $1.2 billion addition and the $2.0 billion available, each divided by Fortinet’s reported free cash flow of $2.84 billion for the first three quarters of 2026.
- About $3.01 billion and about $2.50 billion: the implied 2026 product forecast in October and in February, the revenue forecast middle minus the service forecast middle.
- Lowest of nine quarters: the 64.4% product gross margin against each quarter from the third quarter of 2024 in Fortinet’s supplemental tables.
- 25.5%: the 4:53 p.m. ET after-hours trade of $129.77 against the $174.08 official close, from StockTitan real-time Nasdaq data.
- 63%: third quarter service revenue of $1.31 billion divided by total revenue of $2.08 billion.
- 2.4%: the drop in third quarter diluted shares to 742.6 million from 761.2 million a year earlier.
- $5.32 billion: cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments and long-term investments on September 30 added together.
Frequently asked questions
Did Fortinet beat its earnings guidance?
On profit, yes; on revenue, it landed inside the range. Third quarter revenue of $2.078 billion compares with the $2.010 billion to $2.100 billion Fortinet forecast in July. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.91 compare with a forecast of $0.83 to $0.87.
What is Fortinet’s 2026 guidance?
As of October 28, Fortinet expects 2026 revenue of $8.125 billion to $8.215 billion and service revenue of $5.150 billion to $5.170 billion. It expects billings of $9.568 billion to $9.718 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.54 to $3.58.
What happened to FTNT stock after earnings?
FTNT traded at $129.77 at 4:53 p.m. ET in the after-hours session, 25.5% below the regular-session close of $174.08 on October 28, according to StockTitan real-time Nasdaq data. Before the 4:05 p.m. ET release, the regular session had closed 5.9% below the previous close of $185.00.
How much can Fortinet still spend on share buybacks?
Fortinet says $2.0 billion of its buyback authorization remains after the board added $1.2 billion on October 28. An authorization allows purchases and does not require them.
Does Fortinet pay dividends?
Fortinet’s 2026 releases and cash flow statements show no dividend. It has returned cash through share buybacks, $972.8 million of them in the first nine months of 2026.
When does Fortinet report earnings next?
Fortinet has not announced the date of its fourth quarter 2026 release. Its fourth quarter 2025 results came out on February 5, 2026 at 4:05 p.m. ET, and it has announced each results date with a separate release about a month ahead.
Sources
- Fortinet (FTNT) overview, StockTitan
- Fortinet (FTNT) financials, StockTitan
- Fortinet Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results, October 28, 2026
- Fortinet Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results, July 29, 2026
- Fortinet Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Results, May 6, 2026
- Fortinet Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results, February 5, 2026
- Fortinet 3Q26 Supplemental Financials
- Fortinet Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation
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