ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate December 20, 2025
Rhea-AI Summary
ADP (ADP) reported its NER Pulse preliminary estimate for the four weeks ending Dec 20, 2025, showing U.S. private employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week. The pace of weekly job gains edged up from the prior week (11,000), and the release includes a 12-week series of seasonally adjusted, four-week moving averages ranging from -11,750 to 13,250. ADP notes these are preliminary estimates with a two-week data lag and that the next NER Pulse will be released Jan 20, 2026. The NER Pulse is produced by ADP Research with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Positive
- Four-week average +11,750 jobs/week (week ending 12/20/25)
- Latest week shows sequential increase from 11,000 to 11,750
Negative
- Several November weeks show negative four-week averages (as low as -11,750)
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, ADP declined 2.18%, reflecting a moderate negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
Peers show mixed, mostly modest moves: ADBE -0.04%, CDNS -0.11%, INTU -0.73%, while MSTR +3.81% and NOW +0.71%. This does not indicate a unified sector reaction around the ADP employment update.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | Employment report | Positive | +0.1% | Monthly ADP report showed December job gains and solid pay growth. |
| Jan 05 | Earnings scheduling | Neutral | +1.8% | Announcement of Q2 FY26 earnings release and conference call timing. |
| Dec 23 | Prelim NER Pulse | Positive | -1.1% | Preliminary NER Pulse showed weekly job gains of 11,500 per week. |
| Dec 16 | Prelim NER Pulse | Positive | -1.1% | Preliminary NER Pulse indicated hiring rebound to 16,250 jobs per week. |
| Dec 11 | Product integration | Positive | +2.1% | Thatch ICHRA integration into RUN Powered by ADP for small businesses. |
Recent ADP employment-related releases and product/news updates have produced small price moves, with two preliminary NER Pulse reports seeing -1.05% reactions despite constructive hiring data, while other operational or scheduling news skewed slightly positive.
Over the last two months, ADP has issued several employment and corporate updates. The December 2025 National Employment Report showing 41,000 job gains and 4.4% annual pay growth saw a near‑flat 0.05% move. Announcing the upcoming Q2 FY26 results on Jan 28, 2026 coincided with a 1.76% gain. Preliminary NER Pulse estimates on Nov 29 and Dec 6, 2025 both led to -1.05% reactions despite positive job growth. A small‑business healthcare integration with Thatch on Dec 11, 2025 matched the strongest move, at +2.06%.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement provides a preliminary view of U.S. private‑sector hiring, with ADP estimating an average of 11,750 jobs added per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, based on a seasonally adjusted four‑week moving average. It extends a series of NER Pulse releases that track week‑over‑week employment trends with a two‑week data lag. Investors may watch how future NER Pulse updates and the full ADP National Employment Report evolve against this backdrop of modest, but positive, job creation.
Key Terms
four-week moving average technical
seasonally adjusted technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
The pace of job gains edged up from the prior week. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data are added.
Week ending | Change (Four-week moving |
12/20/25 | 11,750 |
12/13/25 | 11,000 |
12/6/25 | 8,750 |
11/29/25 | 13,250 |
11/22/25 | 3,750 |
11/15/25 | -8,500 |
11/8/25 | -11,750 |
11/1/25 | -7,500 |
10/25/25 | -4,750 |
10/18/25 | 11,500 |
10/11/25 | 10,250 |
10/4/25 | 4,250 |
The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.
The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month. The press release is available Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET in the ADP Media Center. The NER Pulse is also available shortly after 8:15 a.m. ET on release days at ADP Research and in Main Street Macro.
The next NER Pulse will be released January 20, 2026.
The ADP National Employment Report and the NER Pulse are produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
About ADP Research
The mission of ADP Research is to make the future of work more productive through data-driven discovery. Companies, workers, and policy makers rely on our finely tuned data and unique perspective to make informed decisions that impact workplaces around the world.
To subscribe to monthly email alerts or obtain additional information about ADP Research, including employment and pay data, methodology, and a calendar of release dates, please visit https://www.adpresearch.com.
About ADP (NASDAQ: ADP)
ADP has been shaping the world of work with innovation and expertise for more than 75 years. As a global leader in HR and payroll solutions, ADP continuously works to solve business challenges for our clients and their workers, from simple, easy-to-use tools for small businesses to fully integrated platforms for global enterprises – and everything in between. Always Designing for People means we're focused on just that – people. We use our unmatched AI-driven insights and proven expertise to design innovative solutions that help people achieve greater success at work. More than 1.1 million clients across 140+ countries rely on ADP's exceptional service to support their people and drive their business forward. HR, Talent, Time Management, Benefits, Compliance, and Payroll. Learn more at ADP.com.
ADP, the ADP logo, and Always Designing for People, ADP National Employment Report, and ADP Research are registered trademarks of ADP, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright © 2026 ADP, Inc. All rights reserved.
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SOURCE ADP, Inc.
FAQ
What did ADP (ADP) report for the four weeks ending Dec 20, 2025?
How did the Dec 20, 2025 NER Pulse compare to the prior week for ADP (ADP)?
What range of weekly four-week averages did ADP publish around Dec 2025?
When will ADP release the next NER Pulse after Dec 20, 2025?
Are ADP's NER Pulse numbers final for Dec 20, 2025?
