ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate for February 7, 2026
Rhea-AI Summary
ADP (ADP) reports the NER Pulse four-week moving average of U.S. private payroll gains was 12,750 jobs for the week ending Feb 7, 2026, marking the fourth consecutive week of strengthening job gains. These are preliminary, seasonally adjusted estimates with a two-week data lag.
The NER Pulse updates weekly with 12 weeks of history and will next publish on March 10, 2026. According to ADP, the measure is based on high-frequency payroll data and may be revised as new data arrives.
Positive
- Four-week moving average reached 12,750 jobs (week ending 2/7/2026)
- Fourth straight week of strengthening job gains
Negative
- Estimates are preliminary and could be revised as new data is added
- Data subject to a two-week lag, reducing immediacy for real-time tracking
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
ADP fell 4.08% while momentum scans only flagged peer INTU moving 5.13% higher. Other major software peers (ADBE, CDNS, MSTR, NOW) show price declines in the broader tape but without matching upside momentum, suggesting ADP’s move was more stock-specific than a synchronized sector rotation.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17 | NER Pulse update | Neutral | +0.5% | Preliminary January 31 NER Pulse showing 10,250 weekly job gains. |
| Feb 10 | NER Pulse update | Neutral | -0.5% | Preliminary January 24 NER Pulse with 6,500 average weekly job gains. |
| Feb 04 | Employment report | Positive | -0.2% | January report citing 22,000 job increase and 4.5% annual pay growth. |
| Jan 28 | AI product launch | Positive | -1.5% | Launch of ADP Assist AI agents to automate HR and payroll tasks. |
| Jan 28 | Earnings release | Neutral | -1.5% | Second quarter fiscal 2026 results and updated outlook disclosure. |
Recent ADP macro and product news has often seen muted or negative stock reactions, even when underlying employment or business trends appeared positive.
Over the last months, ADP has regularly released NER Pulse updates and broader employment reports, such as January’s 22,000-job gain and 2025’s 398,000 private‑sector additions. It also reported fiscal Q2 2026 results and launched new AI agents to enhance HR and payroll workflows. Despite these operational and macro data points, share reactions frequently skewed flat to negative, framing today’s employment‑related release within a pattern of cautious market responses.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement highlights ADP’s NER Pulse estimate showing U.S. private employers adding an average of 12,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, marking four consecutive weeks of strengthening job gains. The report uses a seasonally adjusted four‑week moving average built on ADP’s high‑frequency data and is updated weekly with a two‑week lag. In context, investors may track how these labor trends intersect with ADP’s recent earnings, AI initiatives, and its position near the lower end of its 52‑week range.
Key Terms
four-week moving average technical
seasonally adjusted financial
high-frequency data technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
It was the fourth straight week of strengthening job gains. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added.
Week ending | Change (Four-week moving |
2/7/2026 | 12,750 |
1/31/2026 | 11,500 |
1/24/2026 | 7,250 |
1/17/2026 | 5,500 |
1/10/2026 | 4,250 |
1/3/2026 | 8,000 |
12/27/2025 | 4,250 |
12/20/2025 | 8,000 |
12/13/2025 | 9,500 |
12/6/2025 | 2,500 |
11/29/2025 | 17,000 |
11/22/2025 | 20,000 |
The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data is seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.
The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month. The press release is available Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET in the ADP Media Center. The NER Pulse is also available shortly after 8:15 a.m. ET on release days at ADP Research and in Main Street Macro.
The next NER Pulse will be released March 10, 2026. For upcoming release dates please refer to the calendar on the NER website.
The ADP National Employment Report and the NER Pulse are produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
About ADP Research
The mission of ADP Research is to make the future of work more productive through data-driven discovery. Companies, workers, and policy makers rely on our finely tuned data and unique perspective to make informed decisions that impact workplaces around the world.
To subscribe to monthly email alerts or obtain additional information about ADP Research, including employment and pay data, methodology, and a calendar of release dates, please visit https://www.adpresearch.com.
About ADP (NASDAQ: ADP)
ADP has been shaping the world of work with innovation and expertise for more than 75 years. As a global leader in HR and payroll solutions, ADP continuously works to solve business challenges for our clients and their workers, from simple, easy-to-use tools for small businesses to fully integrated platforms for global enterprises – and everything in between. Always Designing for People means we're focused on just that – people. We use our unmatched AI-driven insights and proven expertise to design innovative solutions that help people achieve greater success at work. More than 1.1 million clients across 140+ countries rely on ADP's exceptional service to support their people and drive their business forward. HR, Talent, Time Management, Benefits, Compliance, and Payroll. Learn more at ADP.com.
ADP, the ADP logo, and Always Designing for People, ADP National Employment Report, and ADP Research are registered trademarks of ADP, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright © 2025 ADP, Inc. All rights reserved.
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SOURCE ADP, Inc.
FAQ
What did ADP report for the NER Pulse for the week ending Feb 7, 2026 (ADP)?
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