ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate for January 31, 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

ADP (ADP) reported that U.S. private employers added an average of 10,250 jobs per week for the four weeks ending January 31, 2026 via the NER Pulse. It was the third straight week of strengthening job gains. These are preliminary, seasonally adjusted, four-week moving averages and may change as new data is added.

The NER Pulse publishes weekly on Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET and includes 12 weeks of historical data; the next release is February 24, 2026.

Positive

• Four-week average of 10,250 jobs/week for week ending 1/31/2026
• Third consecutive week of strengthening job gains

Negative

• Estimates are preliminary and subject to revision as new data is added
• Two-week lag in data may delay reflection of very recent employment shifts

Key Figures

Average weekly job gains: 10,250 jobs per week Prior week average: 7,750 jobs per week Week ending 1/17/2026: 5,500 jobs per week +5 more

8 metrics

Average weekly job gains 10,250 jobs per week Four weeks ending January 31, 2026

Prior week average 7,750 jobs per week Week ending January 24, 2026

Week ending 1/17/2026 5,500 jobs per week Four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted

Week ending 1/10/2026 4,250 jobs per week Four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted

Week ending 1/3/2026 8,000 jobs per week Four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted

Strong prior gain 20,000 jobs per week Week ending 11/22/2025, four-week moving average

Historical window 12 weeks NER Pulse history included with each release

Release time 8:15 a.m. ET Weekly NER Pulse publication time

Market Reality Check

Price: $212.11 Vol: Volume 3,840,401 is 1.11x...

normal vol

$212.11 Last Close

Volume Volume 3,840,401 is 1.11x the 20-day average of 3,461,685. normal

Technical Price $212.11 trades well below the 200-day MA $284.41 and 35.71% under the 52-week high, sitting just 1.67% above the 52-week low.

Peers on Argus

ADP gained 1.02% while key software peers also traded higher (e.g., ADBE +0.69%,...

ADP gained 1.02% while key software peers also traded higher (e.g., ADBE +0.69%, CDNS +4.18%, MSTR +5.42%), yet no coordinated sector momentum was flagged by the scanner.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 10 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 10	NER Pulse update	Positive	-0.5%	Preliminary NER Pulse showed higher average weekly job gains for late January.
Feb 04	Employment report	Positive	-0.2%	January private-sector jobs rose and annual pay increased versus prior year.
Jan 28	AI product launch	Positive	-1.5%	Launch of ADP Assist AI agents to automate HR and payroll workflows.
Jan 28	Earnings release	Positive	-1.5%	Reported fiscal Q2 2026 results and updated outlook with investor call.
Jan 27	NER Pulse update	Neutral	-1.4%	NER Pulse showed weekly job gains edging down into early January.

Pattern Detected

Recent ADP macro/employment and product news has often coincided with modestly negative next-day moves, indicating a tendency for the stock to trade lower even on seemingly constructive updates.

Recent Company History

Over the last several weeks, ADP has repeatedly featured labor-market data and corporate developments. Prior NER Pulse updates on Jan 3 and Jan 24, 2026 showed shifting weekly job gains yet were followed by small share-price declines. The January National Employment Report on Feb 4, 2026 similarly paired modest job growth and wage data with a slight pullback. Alongside these macro releases, ADP announced AI workforce tools and reported fiscal Q2 2026 results, both also seeing negative next-day reactions. Today’s NER Pulse update fits into this ongoing stream of employment-focused disclosures.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement delivers a timely snapshot of U.S. private‑sector job gains, with the NER Pulse sh...

Analysis

This announcement delivers a timely snapshot of U.S. private‑sector job gains, with the NER Pulse showing an average of 10,250 weekly additions for the four weeks ending January 31, 2026. It extends a series of frequent labor‑market updates that complement ADP’s broader employment reports and recent earnings. Investors following the story may watch how future NER Pulse releases, the next due on February 24, 2026, align with ADP’s operating performance and macro employment trends.

Key Terms

four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, adp national employment report

3 terms

four-week moving average technical

"The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average."

A four-week moving average takes the most recent four weekly values of a data series (like price, sales, or trading volume), averages them, and updates that average each week by dropping the oldest week and adding the newest. It smooths out short-term ups and downs—like looking at a smoothed path instead of every single bump—so investors can more easily see underlying trends, spot momentum changes, and avoid reacting to temporary noise.

seasonally adjusted technical

"The data is seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates..."

Seasonally adjusted means that figures have been modified to remove the effects of regular and predictable changes that happen at specific times of the year, such as holidays or weather patterns. This adjustment helps reveal the true underlying trend by making comparisons across different periods more accurate. For investors, it provides a clearer picture of whether economic activity is genuinely improving or declining, without the noise of seasonal fluctuations.

adp national employment report technical

"...a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER)."

The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly estimate of private‑sector job gains and losses in the U.S., calculated from payroll data gathered by a large payroll processing firm. Investors use it as an early weather report for the labor market—strong hiring suggests firmer consumer spending and potential pressure on interest rates, while weak hiring can signal slowing growth and influence stock and bond prices.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

ROSELAND, N.J., Feb. 17, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- For the four weeks ending January 31, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 10,250 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER). 

It was the third straight week of strengthening job gains. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added.

Week ending	Change (Four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted)
1/31/2026	10,250
1/24/2026	7,750
1/17/2026	5,500
1/10/2026	4,250
1/3/2026	8,000
12/27/2025	4,250
12/20/2025	8,000
12/13/2025	9,500
12/6/2025	2,500
11/29/2025	17,000
11/22/2025	20,000
11/15/2025	18,250

The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data is seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.

The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12^th day of the month. The press release is available Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET in the ADP Media Center. The NER Pulse is also available shortly after 8:15 a.m. ET on release days at ADP Research and in Main Street Macro.

The next NER Pulse will be released February 24, 2026. For upcoming release dates please refer to the calendar on the NER website.

The ADP National Employment Report and the NER Pulse are produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

About ADP Research 
The mission of ADP Research is to make the future of work more productive through data-driven discovery. Companies, workers, and policy makers rely on our finely tuned data and unique perspective to make informed decisions that impact workplaces around the world.

To subscribe to monthly email alerts or obtain additional information about ADP Research, including employment and pay data, methodology, and a calendar of release dates, please visit https://www.adpresearch.com.

About ADP (NASDAQ: ADP)
ADP has been shaping the world of work with innovation and expertise for more than 75 years. As a global leader in HR and payroll solutions, ADP continuously works to solve business challenges for our clients and their workers, from simple, easy-to-use tools for small businesses to fully integrated platforms for global enterprises – and everything in between. Always Designing for People means we're focused on just that – people. We use our unmatched AI-driven insights and proven expertise to design innovative solutions that help people achieve greater success at work. More than 1.1 million clients across 140+ countries rely on ADP's exceptional service to support their people and drive their business forward. HR, Talent, Time Management, Benefits, Compliance, and Payroll. Learn more at ADP.com.

ADP, the ADP logo, and Always Designing for People, ADP National Employment Report, and ADP Research are registered trademarks of ADP, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

Copyright © 2026 ADP, Inc. All rights reserved.

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SOURCE ADP, Inc.

FAQ

What did ADP report for the four-week average jobs change ending January 31, 2026 (ADP)?

The four-week moving average was 10,250 jobs per week for the period ending January 31, 2026. According to ADP, this figure is seasonally adjusted and based on the NER Pulse high-frequency payroll data, and it is preliminary and may be revised.

Why does the ADP NER Pulse for January 31, 2026 say the numbers could change (ADP)?

Because the NER Pulse provides preliminary estimates based on a four-week moving average. According to ADP, the data have a two-week lag and are updated as new payroll information is added, so earlier estimates can be revised.

How often and when does ADP publish the NER Pulse, including the next ADP release date?

ADP publishes the NER Pulse every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except when the monthly NER is released. According to ADP, the next NER Pulse release is scheduled for February 24, 2026.

What does a ‘third straight week of strengthening job gains’ mean in ADP's January 31, 2026 NER Pulse (ADP)?

It means the four-week average rose for three consecutive weekly releases, culminating at 10,250 jobs/week on January 31, 2026. According to ADP, this indicates improving weekly payroll trends in their high-frequency data.

Where can investors access the ADP NER Pulse data and historical series for January 2026 (ADP)?

The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, is available at ADP Research and Main Street Macro shortly after 8:15 a.m. ET on release days. According to ADP, the press release posts in the ADP Media Center at that time.