LPL Research Team Releases 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine

Rhea-AI Summary

LPL Financial (Nasdaq: LPLA) released its 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine on December 9, 2025, presenting a data-driven view of the economic and market landscape for 2026. LPL expects policy — fiscal and monetary — to be the primary market driver, with continued volatility and momentum-based moves dominating fundamentals. The report highlights AI investment and fiscal spending as growth supports, rising concentration in mega-cap tech as a valuation risk, and the need for diversification and noncorrelated alternatives. LPL reiterates patience, disciplined rebalancing, and selective additions on pullbacks. Company footprint cited: ~32,000 advisors, ~$2.3 trillion in brokerage and advisory assets.

Key Figures

Advisors supported over 32,000 Advisor count disclosed in 2026 Outlook release

Client assets approximately $2.3 trillion Brokerage and advisory assets referenced in 2026 Outlook release

Clients served approximately 8 million Americans served via advisors and institutions

Institutions supported approximately 1,100 Wealth management institutions served by LPL

Net loss $29.5 million GAAP net loss in Q3 2025 10-Q

Adjusted EPS $5.20 Adjusted diluted EPS for Q3 2025

Total revenue $4,552.0 million Q3 2025 revenue in 10-Q

Total advisory & brokerage assets $2.3145 trillion Assets reported in Q3 2025 10-Q

Market Reality Check

$386.99 Last Close

Volume Volume 574,858 vs 20-day average 513,044 (relative volume 1.12x). normal

Technical Price $368.50 is trading above 200-day MA at $352.12 and 8.69% below 52-week high.

Peers on Argus

LPLA is down 0.68% with mixed peer moves: TW (-1.98%), FUTU (-0.2%), HLI (-1.1%), SF (-0.13%), while EVR is up 2.35%, pointing to stock-specific rather than broad sector action.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 05	Management appointment	Positive	+0.7%	New chief legal officer joins, reinforcing legal and policy capabilities.
Dec 04	Corporate milestone	Positive	+0.7%	15-year IPO anniversary highlighting long-term advisor and asset growth.
Dec 02	Conference appearance	Positive	+1.6%	CEO presentation at Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference.
Dec 02	Advisor recruitment	Positive	-0.8%	Kūpono Wealth Planning joins with reported $145M in client assets.
Nov 20	Monthly activity update	Positive	+0.3%	Advisory and brokerage assets increase to $2.35T with positive net flows.

Pattern Detected

Recent company news has generally been followed by modest positive price reactions, with one divergence on a partner win announcement.

Recent Company History

Over the past few weeks, LPLA has highlighted leadership additions, corporate milestones, advisor recruiting and asset growth. News on Dec 5, 2025 about a new chief legal officer and the Dec 4, 2025 15-year IPO anniversary both coincided with +0.66% moves. Conference participation and monthly activity data, including assets reaching $2.35 trillion on Nov 20, 2025, also saw modest gains. Today’s 2026 Outlook extends this stream of strategic and macro-oriented communication.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement provides LPL’s 2026 Outlook, emphasizing policy-driven markets, ongoing volatility and the importance of diversification and alternative investments. It fits into a recent cadence of updates on leadership, growth milestones and expanding assets, with advisory and brokerage assets around $2.3 trillion. Investors may track how themes like AI investment, Federal Reserve policy and concentration in mega-cap technology evolve against LPL’s reported Q3 $4,552.0 million revenue and balance of GAAP versus adjusted earnings.

Key Terms

volatility technical

"navigate policy-driven trends and volatilitySAN DIEGO, Dec. 09, 2025 --"

Volatility measures how much the price of an investment changes over time, similar to how a roller coaster’s height varies during the ride. High volatility means prices can swing dramatically in a short period, while low volatility indicates more stable, predictable movements. It matters to investors because it affects the potential risks and rewards of their investments, influencing decisions about when to buy or sell.

fiscal policy financial

"From growth in artificial intelligence (AI) and fiscal policy impacts to"

Fiscal policy is a government's decisions about how much to tax people and businesses and how to spend that revenue on public services, infrastructure, or transfers like benefits. For investors, these choices act like a thermostat for the economy—raising or lowering demand, borrowing needs and business costs—so changes in taxes or public spending can influence company sales, profit margins, interest rates and overall asset prices.

monetary policy financial

"heavily influenced by fiscal and monetary policy rather than traditional fundamentals."

Monetary policy is the set of actions a country’s central bank uses to influence the amount of money and the cost of borrowing in the economy, mainly by adjusting interest rates and other tools. Like a thermostat for the economy, it helps control inflation and growth; changes affect borrowing costs, consumer spending and corporate profits, so investors watch it closely because it can move interest-sensitive assets, stock valuations and bond yields.

diversification technical

"requiring diversification and agility — LPL’s 2026 Outlook provides"

Diversification is spreading money across different types of investments—such as stocks, bonds, sectors or regions—so that a setback in one holding does not wipe out the whole portfolio. It matters to investors because, like not putting all your eggs in one basket, it reduces the chance that a single bad outcome will cause large losses, smoothing returns and lowering overall risk without promising guaranteed gains.

alternatives financial

"incorporating noncorrelated alternatives — both public and private — to help"

Alternatives are investments outside traditional stocks, bonds and cash—things like private equity, hedge funds, real estate, commodities or infrastructure—that behave differently from the mainstream market. They matter to investors because they can change a portfolio’s risk and return profile, offering potential upside or protection when regular markets move differently; think of them as adding different spices to a meal to balance flavor and reduce reliance on a single ingredient.

registered investment advisor regulatory

"LPL Financial LLC (“LPL Financial”), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer,"

A registered investment advisor is a professional or firm that provides financial advice and manages investments for clients, operating under regulations that require them to act in their clients' best interests. This designation helps investors identify trustworthy advisors who are legally committed to providing transparent and fair guidance, much like a licensed doctor is bound to prioritize patient well-being.

broker-dealer regulatory

"registered investment advisor and broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC."

A broker-dealer is a licensed firm or individual that both executes trades on behalf of clients (acting as a broker) and buys or sells securities for its own account (acting as a dealer). Investors care because broker-dealers provide the plumbing of markets — they place orders, hold or move cash and securities, offer research or advice, and their stability and fees directly affect trade execution, costs, and the safety of client funds; think of them as a combined travel agent and taxi for your investments.

SIPC regulatory

"registered investment advisor and broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC."

The Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) is a nonprofit organization that helps customers recover cash and securities if a registered brokerage firm fails and assets are missing. Think of it like an insurance backstop for your brokerage account—it can replace missing holdings up to legal limits but does not protect against losses from market movements or bad investment choices.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Annual report delivers a data-driven perspective on the economic and market landscape, outlining actionable insights for investors to navigate policy-driven trends and volatility

SAN DIEGO, Dec. 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- LPL Financial LLC today released its 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine. Reflecting on the second half of 2025 and looking ahead to the new year, this report offers a comprehensive analysis of the economic and market environment, highlighting potential implications for investors and their portfolios in 2026.

The 2026 Outlook provides a grounded, data-driven view of where the economy and markets may be headed as we enter the new year. From growth in artificial intelligence (AI) and fiscal policy impacts to evolving interest rates and volatility trends — requiring diversification and agility — LPL’s 2026 Outlook provides actionable guidance for navigating a dynamic investment landscape.

“While 2025 was a year of pragmatic optimism for financial markets, it wasn’t without volatility,” said LPL Chief Investment Officer Marc Zabicki. “In 2026, volatility will continue. Encouragingly, we anticipate that policy will provide supportive conditions for markets in 2026. Given the current investment climate, where policy changes and market momentum have a significant influence over fundamentals and valuations, it is important for investors to exercise patience and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market sentiment.”

Key Highlights from the 2026 Outlook

• Policy and Momentum Drive Markets
  Markets in 2026 are expected to remain heavily influenced by fiscal and monetary policy rather than traditional fundamentals. Policy decisions — from interest rate adjustments to government spending — will continue to shape sentiment and market direction. This environment amplifies volatility and makes patience and discipline critical for investors navigating short-term swings.
• AI Investment and Fiscal Spending Support Growth
  Equity markets are likely to extend gains, supported by enthusiasm around AI and a more accommodative Federal Reserve. However, high valuations and the growing concentration of mega-cap technology stocks within major indexes increase sensitivity to company-specific risks. This structural shift means investors should expect more frequent bouts of volatility.
• Volatility and Concentration Risks Persist
  LPL Research feels the stock market’s outlook for the second half of 2026 will hinge on trade talks, AI developments, interest rate swings and tax policy. With valuations already reflecting much of the positive news, gains may be modest. While volatility is expected in a tough macro environment, market pullbacks could offer smart opportunities to selectively add to equity positions.
• Diversification and Alternatives Are Essential
  In a complex, policy-driven market where correlations can spike during stress periods, diversification remains the cornerstone of risk management. LPL Research emphasizes spreading exposure across asset classes, sectors and regions, while incorporating noncorrelated alternatives — both public and private — to help enhance portfolio resilience and stability.

“Monetary decision-makers should continue to engage in easing policy as economic conditions downshift and inflation remains contained,” Zabicki added. “When markets are being driven mostly by policy changes and overall trends, and investments start moving in the same direction, investors should pay even more attention to alternative investments that don’t follow the usual market ups and downs, including both public and private options.”

For detailed insights and practical strategies on navigating the evolving market landscape in 2026, download the full 2026 Outlook.

Important Disclosures

Please see the LPL Financial Research 2026 Outlook for additional description and disclosure.

The opinions, statements and forecasts presented herein are general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Any forward-looking statements including the economic forecasts may not develop as predicted and are subject to change based on future market and other conditions.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

About LPL Financial

LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: LPLA) is among the fastest growing wealth management firms in the U.S. As a leader in the financial advisor-mediated marketplace, LPL supports over 32,000 financial advisors and the wealth management practices of approximately 1,100 financial institutions, servicing and custodying approximately $2.3 trillion in brokerage and advisory assets on behalf of approximately 8 million Americans. The firm provides a wide range of advisor affiliation models, investment solutions, fintech tools and practice management services, ensuring that advisors and institutions have the flexibility to choose the business model, services, and technology resources they need to run thriving businesses. For further information about LPL, please visit www.lpl.com.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC (“LPL Financial”), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC. 

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations May Lose Value

Throughout this communication, the terms “financial advisors” and “advisors” are used to refer to registered representatives and/or investment advisor representatives affiliated with LPL Financial. 

We routinely disclose information that may be important to shareholders in the “Investor Relations” or “Press Releases” section of our website. 

Media Contact: 
Media.relations@LPLFinancial.com 
(402) 740-2047 

Tracking #: 834925

FAQ

What did LPL Financial (LPLA) announce in its December 9, 2025 2026 Outlook?

LPL said policy will drive markets in 2026, with continued volatility, AI and fiscal spending supporting gains, and a recommendation to diversify into alternatives.

How does the 2026 Outlook say investors should respond to market volatility according to LPL (LPLA)?

LPL recommends patience, disciplined rebalancing, diversification across asset classes, and adding to equities selectively on pullbacks.

What risks does LPL Financial (LPLA) highlight for equity markets in 2026?

The report highlights high valuations, mega-cap tech concentration, company-specific sensitivity, and policy-driven volatility as key risks.

Does LPL Financial (LPLA) expect AI to affect markets in 2026?

Yes; LPL cites enthusiasm around AI as a support for equity gains alongside accommodative Fed policy.

What firm metrics did LPL include in the 2026 Outlook that matter to investors?

The release notes LPL supports about 32,000 advisors and custodians approximately $2.3 trillion in brokerage and advisory assets.