Insurance Risk Paradox: Claims Volume Declined but Risk is More Elevated and Concentrated, New Verisk Report Finds
Rhea-AI Summary
Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) report finds 2025 claims volumes fell overall, but underlying risks grew more concentrated and severe.
Key metrics: homeowners claims -19% to 5.27 million; vehicle theft -25%; gig-related commercial auto claims +96% since 2021, now 10% of commercial auto claims.
Positive
- Homeowners claims down 19% year-over-year to 5.27 million
- Gig-related commercial auto claims up 96% since 2021
- Gig segment now represents 10% of commercial auto claims
Negative
- Auto theft claims fell 25% but became highly concentrated by model
- Wildfire smoke drove ~30% of early California wildfire claims
- Silica claims rose from ~100 to ~2,000 claims since 2021
News Market Reaction – VRSK
In the Apr 14 session, VRSK gained 1.64%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | 24h Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | Earnings date notice | Neutral | -3.1% | Announced schedule and webcast details for Q1 2026 earnings release. |
| Mar 25 | Industry underwriting data | Positive | -5.0% | Reported strong 2025 P/C underwriting income and key sector profitability metrics. |
| Mar 23 | AI-focused conference | Positive | -0.9% | Hosted Verisk Insurance Conference on AI, data and future of insurance workflows. |
| Mar 17 | Insurance fraud study | Negative | -0.5% | Highlighted rising AI-edited claims and increased sophistication in insurance fraud. |
| Mar 05 | Investor Day strategy | Positive | -2.0% | Reiterated growth targets and capital-return plans for next phase of expansion. |
24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.
Recent VRSK news, including positive strategic and industry data updates, has often coincided with modest share price declines, indicating a pattern of the stock trading lower even on seemingly constructive announcements.
Over the past months, Verisk has focused on industry insights, AI, and long-term growth strategy. On Mar 5, Investor Day outlined medium-term targets for OCC revenue, adjusted EBITDA growth, margins and capital returns, yet shares fell. Subsequent studies on AI-driven fraud and insurance pressures (e.g., $63B 2025 underwriting gain report) also saw negative reactions. Today’s claims-trends report continues this theme of Verisk leveraging proprietary data to highlight evolving risk dynamics for insurers.
Key Terms
gig‑economy technical
pfas medical
silica medical
crystalline dust medical
e-bike technical
subrogation financial
catalytic converter technical
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
Lower claims volume in 2025 masks shifting risks from emerging trends, wildfires, targeted auto theft
JERSEY CITY, N.J., April 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Insurance claims declined in 2025, but the underlying risks became more complex and concentrated, leading to more severe and challenging losses for many insurers, according to Verisk’s Annual Insurance Claims Trends Report, drawing on insights from ClaimSearch®.
Key Findings:
- Claims fell, but risk remained elevated: Claims volumes were lower in 2025 compared to 2024, particularly for homeowners’ claims, due in part to the quiet hurricane season. However, the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires added a layer of complexity to claims, as losses may continue to develop for years to come, based on historical patterns.
- Gig-economy risks are accelerating: Gig‑related commercial auto claims jumped 96 percent since 2021, now accounting for 10 percent of all commercial auto claims, driven largely by food delivery and ride‑hailing activity.
- Auto theft fell overall but became more targeted: Vehicle theft claims fell 25 percent in 2025, with losses increasingly concentrated among a small group of vehicle brands and high‑value components.
Fewer claims, more complex risk dynamics
According to findings from Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK), a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry:
- Homeowners’ claims volume fell 19 percent year over year to 5.27 million, the lowest level in five years, after peaking in 2024. Commercial property claims volume declined to 710,000, down from 910,000 in 2023.
- Personal auto claims volume declined nearly 3 percent in 2025, following a roughly 5 percent decrease in 2024.
- Commercial auto claims volume fell 5 percent in 2025 but remained 14 percent higher than in 2021, reflecting longer-term expansion of commercial driving risk.
- Workers’ compensation and general liability claims volumes remained relatively stable, suggesting that risk in core commercial lines has not retreated.
“Claims data is often the earliest signal of how risk is changing,” said Shane Riedman, president, anti-fraud analytics, at Verisk. “Even as overall volumes declined in 2025, the underlying loss patterns tell a very different story. This report analyzes claims activity at scale, and can help insurers better gauge risk, anticipate emerging risks, identify subrogation opportunities and make smarter decisions for the year ahead.”
Emerging risks are already visible in claims data
From gig-economy to forever chemicals, emerging risks are already embedded in today’s claims activity. From 2021 to 2025:
- Gig‑related commercial auto claims increased 96 percent, rising to 10 percent of all commercial auto claims. Food delivery-related commercial auto claims saw a 300 percent increase, while ride-hailing claims volume increased 66 percent.
- Claims involving silica or crystalline dust increased exponentially, rising from just over 100 claims to just under 2,000 claims. PFAS-related claims also rose over the period, increasing from minimal reported volumes to approximately 700 claims.
- E-bike-related claims quadrupled from around 1,000 claims to just over 4,000 claims, driven by growth in rider injuries, fires and thefts.
California wildfires' smoke damage emerges as a major loss driver
The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires resulted in devastating loss, when comparing claims activity to previous California wildfire events— such as the Camp Fire and Tubbs Fire:
- Losses were driven less by the total acreage burned and more by wildfires impacting densely populated communities with higher home values.
- Smoke damage emerged as a major loss driver, accounting for roughly 30 percent of claims filed within the first 30 days, highlighting early-stage loss development.
- Historical patterns suggest wildfire losses may continue to develop for years, as roughly 35 percent of smoke claims from the 2018 Camp Fire were filed in 2020 or later.
Auto theft becomes more targeted
While overall personal auto theft claims volume declined sharply in 2024 and 2025, theft risk has become more concentrated.
- In 2025, vehicle theft claims volume fell by 25 percent, following a 24 percent decline from 2024.
- Select Infiniti models ranked among one of the highest for theft-to-collision ratios in 2025, along with select Kia, Hyundai, and Acura models, reflecting increasingly targeted theft activity.
- Catalytic converter theft closely tracked precious metal prices, with theft volumes rising after metal prices peaked in 2021. Rising platinum, palladium and rhodium prices in 2025 could signal renewed pressure on theft ahead.
Download the full report: ClaimSearch® Trends - Year-end Analysis
About Verisk
Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry. It empowers clients to strengthen operating efficiency, improve underwriting and claims outcomes, combat fraud and make informed decisions about global risks, including climate change, catastrophic events, sustainability and political issues. Through advanced data analytics, software, scientific research and deep industry knowledge, Verisk helps build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses. With teams across more than 20 countries, Verisk consistently earns certification by Great Place to Work. For more, visit Verisk.com and the Verisk Newsroom.
Morgan Hurley Verisk 551-655-7858 morgan.hurley@verisk.com