GDP Report: US GDP Grew 3.4% in the Third Quarter as Price Increases Slowed
The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter while consumer prices rose at a 2.1% rate, down from 5.0%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. Stockpiling and government spending drove the speed-up, and growth was slightly above the Atlanta Fed’s October 28 GDPNow estimate of 3.3% and a Wall Street Journal poll’s 3.2% median.
The short answer. The first estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows the economy speeding up from 2.2% while price increases slowed, with growth at a 3.4% annual rate (a quarter’s pace scaled to a full year) and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index up at a 2.1% rate, a measure of what consumers pay. Spending by US households and businesses grew at a 4.9% rate. That matters to anyone with a loan or savings, because the Fed held short-term interest rates on October 28, with two officials voting for a quarter-point rise. By our count, the Atlanta Fed model’s last estimate landed half a point or more from BEA’s first figure in 32 of 60 quarters since 2011.
The GDP report’s first figures for the third quarter of 2026
On this page
- GDP report today: how fast the US economy grew in Q3 2026
- How Q3 GDP compares with GDPNow and economists’ forecasts
- What drove Q3 GDP growth
- How Q3 2026 GDP growth compares with recent quarters
- Will the Q3 GDP estimate be revised?
- What the GDP report means for stocks, inflation and interest rates
- Frequently asked questions
GDP report today: how fast the US economy grew in Q3 2026
BEA’s first estimate puts third-quarter growth at 3.4%, faster than the previous quarter’s pace. Spending by households and businesses is the steadier figure to read beside it.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis published its advance estimate, the first of three for the quarter, at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 29 in its news release. The growth rate is measured after price changes and stated as an annual rate, which is the quarter’s growth scaled up to a full year.
For a steadier read, BEA also reports real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and private investment in equipment, software and buildings, homes included. It grew at a 4.9% rate in the third quarter, against 4.6% from April to June.
That measure counts what buyers in the US spend, wherever the goods were made. It leaves out stockpiling, trade and government spending, the parts that swing the headline from one quarter to the next.
How Q3 GDP compares with GDPNow and economists’ forecasts
BEA’s first figure of 3.4% landed above the Atlanta Fed model’s last estimate, 3.3% on October 28. That model has landed half a point or more from BEA’s first figure in about half the quarters it has tracked, and a full point or more in about one quarter in five.
Three estimates were public before the release. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, a running estimate built from monthly data, put growth at 3.3% on October 28, its last estimate for the quarter under the bank’s published update calendar. The New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast, another model estimate, stood at 2.7% on October 23. The median of nine economists in a survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal, published by Dow Jones Newswires the same day, was 3.2%.
Both bank figures are model estimates, not official forecasts of either bank. The Atlanta Fed’s page says its final estimates have been off from BEA’s first figure by 0.77 percentage point on average since 2011. By our count from the bank’s track record, the gap was half a point or more in 32 of the 60 quarters from mid-2011 through June 2026. It was a full point or more in 13.
Show the data
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | 0.0 pts |
| Q3 2023 | -0.5 pts |
| Q4 2023 | +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2024 | -1.1 pts |
| Q2 2024 | +0.2 pts |
| Q3 2024 | 0.0 pts |
| Q4 2024 | 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2025 | +2.5 pts |
| Q2 2025 | +0.1 pts |
| Q3 2025 | +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2025 | -1.6 pts |
| Q1 2026 | +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2026 | 0.0 pts |
| Q3 2026 | +0.1 pts |
This quarter landed close, BEA’s 3.4% against the model’s 3.27% before rounding, a gap of about a tenth of a point. By our count, 49 of the 60 earlier quarters in the track record had a larger gap, using BEA’s published figure.
The last year had both kinds of quarter. For April to June, the model’s last estimate and BEA’s first figure both rounded to 1.5%. For the final quarter of 2025, the model said 3.0% and BEA’s first figure came in at 1.4%. Our GDP report preview walked through what the model expected from each part of the economy.
What drove Q3 GDP growth
Consumer spending added about as much as in the previous quarter. The pickup came from stockpiling, business investment and government, and a jump in imports took much of it back.
In BEA’s own words: “The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were increases in investment, consumer spending, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in exports.” That sentence names the parts of spending that moved the total, and the detailed tables on its release page give each part’s contribution in points.
Show the data
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| Consumer spending | +2.52 pts |
| Business and housing investment | +1.66 pts |
| Stockpiling | +1.61 pts |
| Government | +0.90 pts |
| Trade | -3.32 pts |
Consumer spending added about the same to growth as from April to June, BEA’s historical comparisons show. Stockpiling swung from subtracting to adding, and government spending jumped, with federal spending up at a 15.8% rate.
Imports, which are subtracted, rose at a 19.7% rate and took away 2.64 points, and falling exports another 0.68. Without the change in inventories, the economy grew at a 1.7% rate, the figure BEA reports as final sales of domestic product.
Against the Atlanta Fed model’s last estimate, most parts matched. Government added 0.90 points where the model had 0.44, and trade subtracted 3.32 where it had 2.95, so the two differences nearly cancel out.
How Q3 2026 GDP growth compares with recent quarters
Third-quarter growth of 3.4% compares with an average of 2.66% a quarter from the start of 2023 through June 2026, by our calculation from StockTitan’s data. Those earlier quarters are at BEA’s revised figures, and this one is a first estimate.
StockTitan’s GDP growth page keeps BEA’s quarterly series, and the chart below adds the third quarter’s first estimate. Growth was 4.0% in the second quarter of 2025 and 0.2% in the last quarter of that year. Third-quarter growth is the fastest since the third quarter of 2025, when the economy grew 3.9%, in StockTitan’s quarterly data.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1 2023 | 3.4% |
| Q2 2023 | 2.2% |
| Q3 2023 | 4.5% |
| Q4 2023 | 3.6% |
| Q1 2024 | 1.4% |
| Q2 2024 | 3.6% |
| Q3 2024 | 3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4% |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0% |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2% |
| Q3 2026 | 3.4% |
Will the Q3 GDP estimate be revised?
Yes. Thursday’s 3.4% is a first draft, built before all of September’s data were in, and BEA revises it on November 25 and December 23. By our count, the first estimate has changed by half a point on average, up or down, by the third estimate since 2002.
BEA’s vintage history keeps every version of the growth rate it has published since 2002. Across 96 quarters, the third estimate differed from the advance one by 0.5 point or more in 41 of them. Recent quarters moved less, 0.3 point on average in either direction since 2021.
Over years the changes get bigger, about 1.1 points on average in either direction against BEA’s latest figures, and those latest figures include BEA’s annual updates, such as the one published with the September 30 release, which revised GDP back to 2021.
Show the data
| Item | First estimate | Third estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 1.6% | 1.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Q2 2024 | 2.8% | 3.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Q3 2024 | 2.8% | 3.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2024 | 2.3% | 2.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0% | 3.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4% | 0.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0% | 2.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | 2.2% | +0.7 pts |
The April to June quarter went up. BEA first put growth at 1.5% on July 30 and raised it to 2.2% on September 30, mostly on investment, consumer spending and government spending. Data center construction was among the upward revisions named in the release’s technical notes.
The end of 2025 went down. The advance estimate of February 20 said 1.4%, the third estimate put it at 0.5%, and BEA’s figure after its September annual update is 0.2%.
What the GDP report means for stocks, inflation and interest rates
The report also measures how fast prices rose. PCE prices rose at a 2.1% annual rate in the third quarter, a measure of what consumers pay, against 5.0% from April to June.
Without food and energy, the same index rose at a 2.5% rate, against 3.3% from April to June, BEA’s release shows.
BEA’s monthly personal income report, with the PCE price index for September alone, came out at the same minute, and our September PCE inflation report covers it. For the consumer side of prices, our September CPI report breaks down the latest monthly reading.
The Federal Reserve raised its target range for overnight interest rates to 3.75% to 4% on September 16 and said in its statement that “Inflation remains elevated.”
On October 28, the day before the GDP report, the Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% by a 10 to 2 vote, its statement shows. The two votes against came from Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, who preferred to raise it by a quarter of a percentage point. Our Fed rate decision article covers the meeting.
That statement said “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace” and that “the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance” needed to bring inflation back to its 2% goal. Thursday’s report is the first official GDP estimate for the third quarter, with growth of 3.4% and PCE prices that rose at a 2.1% annual rate. That first estimate is above the 2.66% average of the quarters since the start of 2023, which are at BEA’s revised figures.
Longer-term borrowing costs climbed over the past year. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.00% on October 26 in StockTitan’s macro data, against 4.01% on October 27, 2025, and it is what the government pays to borrow for ten years.
For stock investors, the economy-wide measure of company profits, which covers all US companies and not only listed ones, is not in the advance estimate. From April to June, profits from companies’ current operations were 20.8% higher than a year earlier, BEA’s historical comparisons show. BEA adds third-quarter profits with its second estimate on November 25.
So the quarter brought faster growth and slower price increases than the one before, which is the kind of new information the Fed said it would weigh.
What to watch
- How far the first figure moves, and what companies earned in the third quarter: BEA’s second estimate, with third-quarter corporate profits, on November 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and its third estimate on December 23
- The Fed’s next decision on its target range: its statement after the December 8 to 9 meeting
Our numbers
- 49 of 60 quarters: the earlier quarters in the Atlanta Fed’s track record whose gap between BEA’s first figure and the model’s last estimate was larger than this quarter’s, using BEA’s published 3.4% and the model’s 3.27%
- 32 and 13 of 60 quarters: the quarters from the third quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2026 in which BEA’s first growth figure landed half a point or more, and a full point or more, from the GDPNow model’s last estimate, from the Atlanta Fed’s published track record
- 0.5 point, and 41 of 96 quarters at half a point or more: the average size of the move, up or down, from BEA’s advance estimate to its third estimate, for the 96 quarters since 2002 with an advance estimate (2018Q4 and 2025Q3 had none), from BEA’s vintage history
- 0.3 point: the same average for the 21 quarters since 2021
- 1.1 points: the average size of the move, up or down, from the advance estimate to BEA’s latest figure, same 96 quarters
- 2.66%: the simple average of StockTitan’s 14 quarterly growth readings from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2026
Frequently asked questions
What was the GDP report today?
BEA’s advance estimate, published October 29, 2026, puts real GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, after 2.2% in the second. BEA revises it on November 25 and December 23.
How often is GDP reported?
BEA reports GDP every quarter in three passes, the advance estimate about a month after the quarter ends and the second and third estimates a month apart after that. For the third quarter of 2026 the dates are October 29, November 25 and December 23, according to its release schedule.
Is GDP reported as nominal or real?
Both, and the headline growth rate is the real one, measured after BEA removes price changes. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP, the nominal figure, grew at a 5.6% annual rate against 3.4% for real GDP, and the difference reflects rising prices.
What are final sales to private domestic purchasers?
It is BEA’s measure of spending by US households and businesses on goods, services, equipment, software and buildings, whoever made them. It leaves out inventories, trade and government, the parts that most often swing the headline. StockTitan’s GDP growth page keeps the headline series.
How accurate is GDPNow?
The Atlanta Fed says its model’s final estimates have been off from BEA’s first figure by 0.77 percentage point on average since 2011. Its estimate for the third quarter of 2026 was 3.3% on October 28, against BEA’s first figure of 3.4%.
Sources
- StockTitan GDP growth page
- StockTitan economy dashboard
- StockTitan, GDP report preview
- StockTitan, September 2026 PCE inflation report
- StockTitan, Fed rate decision
- StockTitan, September 2026 CPI report
- BEA, GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026, October 29, 2026
- BEA Historical Comparisons, Q3 2026 advance estimate
- BEA release schedule
- BEA, GDP (Third Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026, September 30, 2026
- BEA Historical Comparisons, Q2 2026
- BEA Vintage History of GDP and GDI
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow and its track record
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Nowcast listing
- Survey of economists compiled by The Wall Street Journal, published by Dow Jones Newswires, October 23, 2026 (median forecast, not linked)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026
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