PCE Inflation Report: Core Inflation Rose to 3.1% a Day After the Fed Held Rates
Core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% and headline PCE inflation was 3.6%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday, a day after the Fed held rates. Core prices rose 0.3% in the month, close to the 0.33% a month that, by our calculation, would take core inflation up to the Fed’s 3.4% forecast for 2026.
The short answer. The price index the Fed’s 2% inflation goal is set on stood 3.6% above a year earlier in September, and 3.1% without food and energy. The Fed’s October 28 statement ties its interest rate policy to returning inflation to that goal. It is one of the first inflation reports since that meeting, where two officials voted to raise rates. By our calculation, a yardstick no official release states, September’s core rise of 0.3% ran close to the pace that would take core inflation up to the officials’ 3.4% forecast for 2026. On that path it keeps rising. It is one month set against a steady path, and the forecast was made before BEA revised its data on September 30.
PCE inflation in September 2026
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PCE inflation report for September 2026
Prices were 3.6% higher in September than a year before, and 3.1% higher without food and energy, whose prices jump around the most. The core rate was up from August’s.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its September report at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 29, and the table sets it beside August. The overall PCE price index rose 0.5% from August, and the core index rose 0.3% (core leaves out food and energy). BEA also revised August’s core monthly rise to 0.3% from the 0.2% it first published, while its yearly rates for August stayed at 3.4% and 3.0%.
| Month, 2026 | Headline PCE, from a year earlier | Core PCE, from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| August | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| September | 3.6% | 3.1% |
Source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, and its historical comparisons table, which keeps August at 3.4% and 3.0%.
The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast had put September’s rise at 0.47% for headline PCE and 0.28% for core on October 28 (the nowcast is a model estimate the bank updates each business day). The published headline and core figures both came in close to those estimates.
BEA’s first estimate of third quarter GDP came out in the same minute (our GDP report preview covers it). BEA’s September 30 annual update had lowered July’s yearly PCE rates by 0.3 point each, as our preview of this report explains.
Core PCE inflation after the Fed held rates
Fed officials’ September median forecast puts core PCE inflation at 3.4% for 2026, higher than it is now. Our steady path to it, about 0.33% a month, would keep core inflation rising through December.
On Wednesday, October 28, the Fed held its target range for its benchmark short-term interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% by ten votes to two, its statement said. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against, preferring to raise it by a quarter of a percentage point. It said “Inflation remains elevated” and added that “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” In plain terms, ten officials chose to wait for more data before changing rates. Our report on the decision covers the rest of the statement.
The Fed defines its goal on this index. Its statement on longer-run goals calls for “inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures.” Headline PCE inflation of 3.6% sits 1.6 points above that goal. Officials also forecast core PCE, which strips out food and energy to show the trend underneath.
The Fed’s September projections give 3.4% for core PCE in 2026, measured as the last three months of 2026 against the same months of 2025. The 0.33% is our steady path to that figure on BEA’s revised index. September’s rise was close to it, so the steady pace left for the last three months barely moved. The projection came before BEA’s September 30 revision and sets no monthly path, so a slow month can be made up later.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 0.40% |
| Feb 2026 | 0.34% |
| Mar 2026 | 0.26% |
| Apr 2026 | 0.28% |
| May 2026 | 0.31% |
| Jun 2026 | 0.13% |
| Jul 2026 | 0.14% |
| Aug 2026 | 0.26% |
| Sep 2026 | 0.32% |
| Our path | 0.33% |
Core prices have moved unevenly this year, as the chart shows. Officials publish new projections at their December 8 to 9 meeting, and the October meeting brought none.
Officials had September’s CPI when they voted, and this report adds the Fed’s own measure for the same month. Our reading is that it settles little between the ten who waited and the two who wanted a raise, since core prices kept close to that path while headline inflation stayed well above the 2% goal.
Personal income and spending in September
Household spending rose faster than income in September, so people saved a smaller share of what they earned. The saving rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest since October 2022.
In the same BEA report, personal income rose 0.2% in September and spending rose 0.5%, or $113.1 billion. After taxes and with rising prices taken out, income fell 0.3%, while spending measured the same way was flat.
Personal saving came to $911.1 billion, 3.8% of income after taxes, down from 4.0% in August. BEA’s historical comparisons table shows the rate was last lower in October 2022, at 3.6%.
| September 2026 | Change from August |
|---|---|
| Personal income | 0.2% |
| Disposable personal income (after taxes) | 0.2% |
| Disposable income, adjusted for prices | -0.3% |
| Consumer spending (PCE) | 0.5% |
| Consumer spending, adjusted for prices | 0.0% |
Source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, and its historical comparisons table. Saving rate 3.8% in September, 4.0% in August.
PCE inflation vs CPI inflation in September
Headline CPI jumped 0.6% on gasoline in September, while headline PCE rose 0.5%. Core PCE inflation stayed above core CPI inflation, the reverse of their usual order.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on October 14 that headline CPI rose 0.6% in September (BLS September CPI). In the release’s words, gasoline “rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase.” Our CPI report covers that release.
BEA explains the gap between the two measures in an explainer on its site. PCE counts spending “by and on behalf of the personal sector,” which brings in spending the CPI leaves out (in BEA’s worked example, mostly hospital and nursing home services). The CPI measures “out-of-pocket spending by households.” The two also weight items differently, and in that example housing and gasoline counted for more in the CPI. Our reading is that this weighting lets a gasoline month lift CPI more than PCE.
Past big CPI months show the same pattern, though they do not separate out gasoline. In StockTitan’s macro data, headline CPI rose 0.55% to 0.75% in a month 18 times from January 1991 through September 2026, and headline PCE rose less every time.
| September 2026 | From August | From a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE (BEA) | 0.5% | 3.6% |
| Headline CPI (BLS) | 0.6% | 3.7% |
| Core PCE (BEA) | 0.3% | 3.1% |
| Core CPI (BLS) | 0.3% | 2.6% |
Source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026; BLS, Consumer Price Index, September 2026. Monthly changes with seasonal swings removed; BLS states its yearly changes before that step.
Core prices run the other way. By our calculation, core PCE inflation has run above core CPI inflation in each of the eleven months with data since November 2025, the reverse of their usual order. August’s gap, after BEA’s revision, was the widest that way since June 2010.
On the agencies’ published figures the gap narrowed to 0.5 point in September, 3.1% for core PCE against 2.6% for core CPI, from 0.6 point in August. BLS states its yearly rate before removing seasonal swings, so these published gaps and our own August gap above are not measured the same way.
Show the data
| Category | Core PCE | Core CPI |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| Feb 2025 | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| Mar 2025 | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| Apr 2025 | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| May 2025 | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Jun 2025 | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Jul 2025 | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| Aug 2025 | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| Sep 2025 | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Nov 2025 | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Dec 2025 | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Jan 2026 | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Feb 2026 | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Mar 2026 | 3.1% | 2.6% |
| Apr 2026 | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| May 2026 | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| Jun 2026 | 3.0% | 2.6% |
| Jul 2026 | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Aug 2026 | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Sep 2026 | 3.1% | 2.6% |
What to watch
- Whether core prices pick up toward the pace that reaches the Fed’s forecast: BEA’s October report, Wednesday, November 25, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Whether core PCE inflation stays above core CPI inflation: the BLS October CPI on Tuesday, November 10, and BEA’s October report on November 25
- Whether officials change their 3.4% core forecast: the Fed’s new projections at its December 8 to 9 meeting
Our numbers
- About 0.33% a month: the steady core PCE rise from October to December 2026 that matches the Fed’s September median of 3.4%, after September. We measured it on BEA’s revised index the way the Fed measures its forecast, the last three months of 2026 against those of 2025
- Eleven months and 0.59 point: core PCE inflation above core CPI inflation in every month with data from November 2025 to September 2026. August’s gap was the widest since June 2010 in StockTitan’s macro data, which starts in 1960
- 18 of 18: months from January 1991 through September 2026 when headline CPI rose 0.55% to 0.75% in a month and headline PCE rose less, in the same data; over the wider set of CPI rises of 0.5% or more, PCE rose more once, in March 2021
- About half a point: how far core PCE inflation has averaged below core CPI inflation since 1960, in the same data
Frequently asked questions
What is PCE inflation?
It is the yearly change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, which BEA builds from what households spend and what is spent on their behalf. The Fed’s 2% inflation goal is defined on it.
What is the current PCE inflation rate?
BEA’s report of October 29, 2026 put PCE inflation at 3.6% for September 2026 and core PCE inflation at 3.1%. StockTitan’s PCE price index page tracks each release with its history.
What is core PCE inflation?
Core PCE inflation is the same measure without food and energy, whose prices swing the most from month to month. The Fed’s 2% goal is set on the overall index, and officials publish forecasts for both at four meetings a year.
When does PCE inflation data come out next?
BEA publishes it at 8:30 a.m. ET in its Personal Income and Outlays report. The October figures are due on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, and StockTitan’s economic calendar lists the dates.
Is PCE inflation higher than CPI inflation?
Headline PCE ran below headline CPI in September, 3.6% against 3.7%. It has done so in all 18 months since 1991, September included, when CPI rose 0.55% to 0.75% in a month. Core PCE was the higher of the two core measures, 3.1% against 2.6% for core CPI.
Did September PCE inflation beat expectations?
No named consensus estimate was available. The Cleveland Fed’s model had September’s rise at 0.47% for headline PCE and 0.28% for core, and BEA’s published 0.5% and 0.3% both came in close to those model figures.
Sources
- StockTitan PCE price index page
- StockTitan economic calendar
- StockTitan: Fed rate decision, October 28, 2026
- StockTitan: CPI inflation report, September 2026
- StockTitan: GDP report preview, third quarter 2026
- BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
- BEA, differences between the PCE price index and the CPI
- BLS, Consumer Price Index, September 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026
- Federal Reserve, Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy
- Federal Reserve, meeting calendar
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, inflation nowcasting
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