UPS Earnings: Fewer U.S. Packages, Higher Forecast, Price Rises Next
UPS raised its 2026 forecast after a third quarter with about 529,000 fewer U.S. packages a day but higher U.S. revenue, and three price increases are due before Christmas. By our count higher revenue per package, which includes fuel surcharges UPS has not reported separately, brought in about $833 million against $463 million lost to fewer packages.
The short answer. UPS is carrying fewer packages, partly by choice after cutting work for Amazon, but its U.S. revenue, the money it takes in from customers, still grew. It has raised its 2026 sales forecast to about $92.6 billion. UPS’s published ground fuel surcharge adds 29.5% on top of the base rate this week. Retail ground shipments from the lower 48 states, such as those sent from a UPS location, do not pay it. Its daily rates rise 5.9% on average on December 21; those apply to customers with a scheduled pickup or a daily-rate contract. By our count the higher revenue per package outweighed the revenue lost to fewer packages, and UPS’s three scheduled holiday price steps are in one calendar below.
UPS carries fewer U.S. packages and collects more for each
What we calculated
- About $833 million: the extra U.S. revenue from the higher average per package in the third quarter, this year’s packages times the 82-cent increase.
- About $463 million: what the lower daily package count cost at last year’s average of $13.47, counted over the same 65 working days.
- About 6.6%: the rise in UPS’s average per U.S. package had this year’s mix of air and ground services matched last year’s, against the 6.1% UPS reports.
- About 5%: how much UPS’s holiday quarter revenue forecast of $25.7 billion sits above its $24.5 billion of a year earlier.
- About 2.8 million: how many more U.S. packages a day UPS moved in the third quarter of 2024 than in 2026.
- 1.8%: how much higher U.S. revenue is now than in the third quarter of 2024.
- About 13 cents: how much more of each U.S. package’s revenue UPS kept after costs. That is the 82-cent rise in revenue per package less the 69-cent rise in adjusted cost per package.
- About 17%: the rise in UPS’s adjusted earnings per share, which set aside certain costs and gains, once last year’s $0.30 property gain is taken out.
- 73%: the rise in the weekly U.S. diesel price from the government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), week of October 19, 2026 against the week of October 20, 2025.
- Half a point: how much higher UPS’s November 2 ground fuel table sets the surcharge than the current table, at the same diesel price.
- 25%: the increase in UPS’s peak holiday fee on a home ground delivery, $0.75 this year against $0.60 in 2025.
On this page
UPS earnings: fewer packages, higher revenue per package
UPS carried fewer U.S. packages than a year ago, but its average revenue per package rose, so its U.S. sales still grew. By our count, that higher average brought in more revenue than the missing packages took away.
From July through September UPS moved 3.3% fewer U.S. packages on an average working day than a year earlier, per the company’s third quarter financial schedules. What UPS calls revenue per piece, the average it takes in for each package, rose 6.1% to $14.29. That average includes fuel surcharges as well as base rates.
That average is a blend. A next day air package brings in more than twice what a ground package does, so the figure moves with what customers ship as well as with list prices. This quarter the air services shrank fastest, which pulled the average down. Had the mix of next day air, deferred air and ground stayed as it was a year ago, our calculation puts the rise at about 6.6%. That figure still includes fuel and any change in weight or distance within each service.
Counted over the same number of working days at last year’s average, the lower daily count cost UPS about $463 million of U.S. revenue. The 82-cent rise in revenue per package, on the packages it did carry, brought in about $833 million. Part of that is fuel surcharges, though UPS has not said how much. This year’s extra working day and more revenue from cargo and other services outside packages made up the rest, and U.S. revenue rose 4.5%.
Show the data
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $14,220M |
| Volume | -$463M |
| Average | +$833M |
| Extra day | +$218M |
| Cargo, rounding | +$57M |
| Q3 2026 | $14,865M |
Costs rose almost as fast. On UPS’s adjusted basis, which sets aside certain costs and gains UPS keeps apart from its underlying business, the cost of handling a U.S. package climbed 69 cents. By our arithmetic UPS kept about 13 cents more of each package’s revenue after costs. Its adjusted U.S. operating profit rose 14%, meaning its profit from running the business before interest and taxes.
One comparison flatters last year’s third quarter. It included a $330 million gain from selling property and leasing it back, which added $0.30 to that quarter’s adjusted earnings per share (profit divided by the number of shares).
So this third quarter’s $1.69 is 3% below last year’s figure as printed in the release, and about 17% above it once that gain is taken out, by our arithmetic.
Show the data
| U.S. Domestic, Q3 | Packages a day 2026 | Packages a day 2025 | Revenue per piece 2026 | Revenue per piece 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Day Air | 1,322,000 | 1,422,000 | $29.47 | $26.16 |
| Deferred (two and three day air) | 755,000 | 804,000 | $21.68 | $19.82 |
| Ground | 13,544,000 | 13,924,000 | $12.40 | $11.81 |
| Total | 15,621,000 | 16,150,000 | $14.29 | $13.47 |
Source: UPS third quarter 2026 financial schedules, sheet Selected Operating Data, three months ended September 30. Adjusted cost per piece: $13.32 against $12.63, which excludes cargo and other expense; operating days 65 against 64.
Why is UPS shipping fewer packages?
Partly by choice. UPS cut much of the work it did for its largest customer, Amazon, and says that cut ended in the second quarter. This summer is compared with one that still held part of it, and UPS has not said how much of the drop that explains.
The release puts it in one sentence: “the planned volume reductions from our largest customer were completed in the second quarter of 2026.” Chief executive Carol Tomé named the customer in July. She thanked staff for finishing “our Amazon glide down,” the company’s phrase for that wind down, in the second quarter release. UPS’s second quarter report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the U.S. market regulator, says the volume from that customer was cut by more than 50% from 2024 levels.
Two years makes the scale plain. In the third quarter of 2024 UPS moved about 18.4 million U.S. packages a day. That figure comes from the third quarter 2025 release, which shows that period as UPS now reports it. By our arithmetic that is about 2.8 million more a day than now, yet U.S. revenue is 1.8% higher than it was then.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| 3Q24 | 18.4M |
| 4Q24 | 22.4M |
| 1Q25 | 17.4M |
| 2Q25 | 16.6M |
| 3Q25 | 16.2M |
| 4Q25 | 20.0M |
| 1Q26 | 16.0M |
| 2Q26 | 16.0M |
| 3Q26 | 15.6M |
Part of the last stretch has moved too. UPS now hands the final delivery of part of its cheapest ground service, Ground Saver, to the U.S. Postal Service, according to the same SEC report. UPS said in that report that the fees it pays the Postal Service for that work were the main reason its U.S. facility and transportation costs rose.
UPS fuel surcharge and diesel prices
Fuel is part of the picture, though UPS has not said how much of the 82 cents it explains. Diesel costs far more than a year ago, and UPS adds a fuel surcharge on top of its rates that follows diesel week by week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration put its weekly U.S. No 2 diesel retail price at $6.28 a gallon for the week of October 19. A year earlier it was $3.62, so diesel costs 73% more. The biggest jump came in one week of March.
Show the data
| Category | U.S. on-highway diesel | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | $3.62 | |
| 2025-10-27 | $3.72 | |
| 2025-11-03 | $3.75 | |
| 2025-11-10 | $3.84 | |
| 2025-11-17 | $3.87 | |
| 2025-11-24 | $3.83 | |
| 2025-12-01 | $3.76 | |
| 2025-12-08 | $3.67 | |
| 2025-12-15 | $3.61 | |
| 2025-12-22 | $3.54 | |
| 2025-12-29 | $3.50 | |
| 2026-01-05 | $3.48 | |
| 2026-01-12 | $3.46 | |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.53 | |
| 2026-01-26 | $3.62 | |
| 2026-02-02 | $3.68 | |
| 2026-02-09 | $3.69 | |
| 2026-02-16 | $3.71 | |
| 2026-02-23 | $3.81 | |
| 2026-03-02 | $3.90 | |
| 2026-03-09 | $4.86 | Up from $3.90 to $4.86 in one week |
| 2026-03-16 | $5.07 | |
| 2026-03-23 | $5.38 | |
| 2026-03-30 | $5.40 | |
| 2026-04-06 | $5.64 | |
| 2026-04-13 | $5.61 | |
| 2026-04-20 | $5.40 | |
| 2026-04-27 | $5.35 | |
| 2026-05-04 | $5.64 | |
| 2026-05-11 | $5.64 | |
| 2026-05-18 | $5.60 | |
| 2026-05-25 | $5.52 | |
| 2026-06-01 | $5.35 | |
| 2026-06-08 | $5.21 | |
| 2026-06-15 | $5.06 | |
| 2026-06-22 | $4.83 | |
| 2026-06-29 | $4.67 | |
| 2026-07-06 | $4.58 | |
| 2026-07-13 | $4.80 | |
| 2026-07-20 | $5.13 | |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.31 | |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.35 | |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.26 | |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.45 | |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.65 | |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.60 | |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.97 | |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.29 | |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.53 | $6.53, the high of the period |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.38 | |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.20 | |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.18 | |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.28 |
UPS ties its ground fuel surcharge to that EIA figure through a published table. For the week of October 26 the table sets it at 29.5%, added on top of the base shipping charge, per UPS’s fuel surcharge page. The air surcharge is 33%. The same page says ground packages shipped at retail rates from the 48 contiguous states do not carry the ground fuel surcharge. Retail rates apply when you ship from a UPS location, per UPS’s rates page.
| Your shipping charge before the fuel surcharge ($) | Fuel added to your charge, week of Oct. 26, 2026 |
|---|---|
| $10.00 | $2.95 |
| $25.00 | $7.38 |
| $50.00 | $14.75 |
| $100.00 | $29.50 |
UPS’s 29.5% U.S. Ground fuel surcharge for the week of October 26, 2026, added on top of the charge; retail ground packages from the lower 48 states are exempt.
UPS has not yet said how much of the 82 cents is fuel. It did split the second quarter in its SEC report, when U.S. revenue grew 6.0%. Fewer packages pulled that growth down by 3.3 percentage points, and the fuel surcharge alone pushed it up by 4.1. UPS said fuel surcharge revenue rose “primarily as a result of higher fuel costs and surcharge rates due to the Middle East conflict.”
The surcharge passes a cost along, and UPS pays that cost too. Its fuel bill across the company rose 44% in the third quarter to $1.54 billion, the schedules show. The revenue split for the third quarter comes in UPS’s next quarterly report to the SEC.
UPS holiday surcharges and the December rate increase
UPS has three more scheduled price steps before Christmas. Its fuel table moves up on November 2, the holiday fee on a home delivery rises on November 22, and daily rates rise 5.9% on average on December 21.
The holiday fees are in UPS’s demand surcharge schedule, which applies them to every UPS Air, Ground Residential (ground delivery to a home) and Ground Saver package. Under the standard schedule, the fee on home ground and Ground Saver packages rises from $0.50 to $0.75 for the busiest weeks, November 22 to December 26.
Show the data
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Peak fees start for large packages and packages that are hard to handle. |
| 2026-10-25 | The holiday fee starts at $0.50 per home ground package. |
| 2026-11-02 | A new ground fuel surcharge table adds half a percentage point at the same diesel price. |
| 2026-11-22 | The holiday fee rises to $0.75 per home ground package. |
| 2026-12-21 | 2027 rates up 5.9% on average. Surge fee on some ground shipments on or after this date. |
| 2026-12-27 | The holiday fee returns to $0.50 per home ground package. |
| 2027-01-16 | The holiday fee period ends after this day. |
Every fee in the peak window is higher than in 2025. The home ground fee then topped out at $0.60, per the 2025 schedule, so this year’s is 15 cents more. Big shippers use a separate table, whose fee rises the further their weekly volume runs above their June level.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Ground Residential | 25.0% |
| Ground Saver | 25.0% |
| Next Day Air | 22.0% |
| Additional Handling | 10.2% |
| Large Package | 9.8% |
| Over Maximum Limits | 9.3% |
The fuel change is quieter. A new ground table takes effect on November 2. At the $6.28 diesel price behind this week’s surcharge, it would set the ground surcharge at 30%, half a point above the current table at the same price.
Then come the 2027 prices. UPS’s rates page says its daily rates for ground, air and international services rise by an average of 5.9% from December 21, 2026. Daily rates apply to customers with a scheduled UPS pickup or a contract that provides daily rates. UPS adds that the effect “will vary according to your shipping characteristics and the terms of your UPS agreement,” so contract customers start from their own deals.
Those are the steps UPS has priced so far. The same page lists a surge fee, effective on or after December 21, on some ground and Ground Saver shipments from certain ZIP codes. It applies to qualified customers, and its details are due in early November. From December 21 a new list of ZIP codes also decides which deliveries carry area surcharges, the extra fees UPS adds for certain ZIP codes.
Show the data
| UPS fee, peak window | 2025 (Nov 23 to Dec 27) | 2026 (Nov 22 to Dec 26) |
|---|---|---|
| Ground Residential, per package | $0.60 | $0.75 |
| Ground Saver, per package | $0.60 | $0.75 |
| Next Day Air and other Air, per package | $2.05 | $2.50 |
| Additional Handling, per package | $10.80 | $11.90 |
| Large Package, per package | $107.00 | $117.50 |
| Over Maximum Limits, per package | $540 | $590 |
Source: UPS Demand Surcharges, August 28, 2025 and August 26, 2026 updates, standard schedule. Higher volume shippers use separate tables. The 2027 rates also raise the minimum billable weight for Additional Handling packages from 40 to 50 pounds.
UPS holiday forecast, dividend and debt
UPS expects a bigger and more profitable holiday quarter than last year’s, and raised its full-year forecast for the second time in a row. Those are the company’s own forecasts.
For October through December UPS forecasts revenue of about $25.7 billion in its release, about 5% above the same quarter of 2025 by our arithmetic.
It expects adjusted operating profit of about $3.3 billion, against $2.89 billion a year ago.
For the full year it now sees about $92.6 billion of revenue, up from $91.2 billion in July and $89.7 billion in January.
Its adjusted operating profit forecast moved less, to about $8.75 billion from $8.65 billion in July.
“As momentum builds, we are entering the holiday shipping season from a position of strength, with the most automated and efficient network in our history,” Tomé said in the release. In plain terms, UPS says its more automated network is ready for the holiday rush. The company is also hiring 100,000 seasonal workers for the season.
For shareholders, UPS declared a quarterly dividend of $1.64 a share in August, the cash it pays its owners each quarter, per its dividend notice. It expects about $5.4 billion of dividend payments this year, subject to board approval. It bought back no shares in the first nine months, after buying back shares a year earlier, per its financial schedules.
UPS’s diluted share count averaged 852 million against 848 million, counting the shares used to work out earnings per share.
Long-term debt and finance leases stood at $25.1 billion on September 30, a total that counts leases UPS books much like loans, plus $957 million due within a year. The full figures are on StockTitan’s UPS financials page.
In our reading, those numbers describe a company that now grows through what it charges while it carries less, and its holiday price list keeps that going.
What to watch
- How much of the third quarter’s 6.1% rise was fuel: UPS’s quarterly report to the SEC, which it filed on November 5 last year.
- How much of the volume drop was the Amazon cut, and whether other customers grew: the earnings call replay on UPS’s investor site and the same quarterly report.
- Which shipments the surge fee covers and the detailed 2027 rates: UPS says surge fee details come in early November and more detailed rate previews at a later date.
- Whether the holiday quarter matched the forecast: UPS’s fourth quarter results; it reported last year’s on January 27.
How we counted
Revenue split: U.S. package revenue per working day is average daily packages times revenue per piece. UPS’s third quarter 2026 schedules give 15.621 million at $14.29, against 16.150 million at $13.47 a year earlier.
The lower daily count is the drop of 529,000 packages a day times $13.47 times 65 working days, about $463 million, so both years are counted over the same days. The higher average per package is 15.621 million times $0.82 times 65, about $833 million, about 1.8 times the $463 million. The extra working day (65 against 64) is worth about $218 million at last year’s daily package revenue. Cargo and other revenue rose $58 million, and with rounding these close the $645 million change.
Constant mix: this year’s revenue per piece for Next Day Air, Deferred and Ground weighted by last year’s daily volumes gives a 6.6% rise, against 6.1% as reported. It holds only the mix of those three services fixed.
Two years: 18,407,000 packages a day and $14,597 million of U.S. revenue in the third quarter of 2024, from the third quarter 2025 release, against 15,621,000 and $14,865 million now. Earnings per share: $1.74 less the $0.30 gain is $1.44, and $1.69 is 17.4% above it. Kept per package: revenue per piece rose $0.82 ($13.47 to $14.29) and adjusted cost per piece $0.69 ($12.63 to $13.32); both exclude cargo. Holiday quarter: $25.7 billion against fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $24,479 million is 5.0% higher.
Diesel: EIA weekly U.S. No 2 diesel retail price, $6.276 on October 19, 2026 against $3.620 on October 20, 2025. Fuel tables: UPS’s current ground table and its November 2 table both cover $6.25 to $6.34 a gallon, at 29.5% and 30%. Fee increases: UPS demand surcharge schedules of 2026 and 2025, peak window, standard tables.
Frequently asked questions
What is the UPS fuel surcharge right now?
For the week of October 26, 2026, UPS’s fuel surcharge adds 29.5% on top of the shipping charge for U.S. ground services and 33% for domestic air. UPS sets it weekly from EIA’s diesel and jet fuel prices. A new table from November 2 sets it half a point higher at the same diesel price.
Do UPS retail ground shipments pay the fuel surcharge?
Not the ground one. UPS’s fuel surcharge page says the U.S. ground fuel surcharge does not apply to UPS Ground packages sent from the 48 contiguous states at retail rates.
How much is the UPS holiday surcharge in 2026?
Under UPS’s standard schedule, a home ground or Ground Saver package carries $0.50 from October 25, $0.75 from November 22 to December 26 and $0.50 until January 16. Air packages carry $1.35, then $2.50 in the peak window. Shippers above 20,000 packages a week use separate tables.
When does the UPS rate increase take effect?
UPS says its 2027 daily rates for ground, air and international services rise by an average of 5.9% from December 21, 2026. What any one shipper pays depends on what it ships and on its UPS agreement.
Does UPS still pay a dividend in 2026?
Yes. UPS declared a quarterly dividend of $1.64 a share in August and expects dividend payments of around $5.4 billion for 2026, subject to board approval. It paid $4.06 billion in the first nine months, per its financial schedules, and has bought back no shares this year.
When is the UPS earnings call?
UPS set its third quarter call for 8:30 a.m. ET on October 27, 2026, with chief executive Carol Tomé and finance chief Brian Dykes. A webcast runs on its investor relations site. The full release is on StockTitan’s UPS third quarter 2026 news page, and other companies reporting this week are in our earnings calendar for the week of October 26.
Sources
- StockTitan: UPS Releases 3Q 2026 Earnings (October 27, 2026)
- StockTitan: UPS Releases 2Q 2026 Earnings (July 28, 2026)
- StockTitan: UPS Releases 4Q 2025 Earnings (January 27, 2026)
- StockTitan: UPS Releases 3Q 2025 Earnings (October 28, 2025)
- StockTitan: UPS seasonal workforce release (October 7, 2026)
- StockTitan: UPS Announces Quarterly Dividend (August 5, 2026)
- StockTitan: UPS financials
- UPS: third quarter 2026 financial schedules
- UPS: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026
- UPS: fuel surcharges
- UPS: fuel surcharge tables effective November 2, 2026
- UPS: demand surcharges, August 26, 2026 update
- UPS: demand surcharges, August 28, 2025 update
- UPS: shipping costs and rates, 2027 daily rates
- U.S. Energy Information Administration: weekly U.S. No 2 diesel retail prices
The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an endorsement of any particular investment strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.